The development of machinery industry is in urgent need of transformation and upgrading

Cai Weici, executive vice president of China Federation of Machinery Industry, said that according to the statistics of the first 10 months of 2012, the economic operation of the machinery industry continued to decline, with industrial added value, total output value, profits realized, foreign exchange earned through exports, product output, and fixed assets. The six major economic indicators such as investment showed a downward trend. At the same time, the situation in the industry has become more fragmented and economic operations have become more difficult.

However, he stressed that although the operating environment is still severe, the pressures on structural adjustments and upgrades will not be reduced. Therefore, it can be said that the reduction in growth rate is the pursuit of economic development from the speed to quality adjustment.

Contradictions between internal and external overlap In the first three quarters of 2012, the machinery industry increased by 8.6% year-on-year, which was lower than the national average growth rate of industry (9.9%). The machinery industry ranked in the top 10 in terms of added value growth rate in 12 industrial sectors. . In particular, the industrial output value increased by 11.91% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the lowest in the past 10 years (except in 2009), which was a further 13 percentage points lower than the growth rate in 2011.

During this period, it was disturbing that the profit growth of the machinery industry in 2012 had been rare for many years and was much lower than the increase in sales during the same period. At the same time, the machinery industry’s foreign exchange earnings from exports fell by more than 10 percentage points compared to the same period in 2011. In particular, the export situation in the second half of 2012 dropped sharply. The year-on-year growth rates for the three months of July, August and September dropped to 4.69%, 2.47% and 7.51%, respectively. The growth rate has slipped below 10%, which is rare for several years.

Cai Weici frankly stated that apart from the few high-end equipment that have yet to pass the technology and have not yet been able to achieve localization, almost all mechanical products are facing severe oversupply and vicious competition.

Based on the above, Cai Weici believes that the current development of the machinery industry can be said to be a mixture of internal and external conflicts and the challenges are very severe.

Medium-speed growth or normal but Cai Weici also stated that the growth rate of the machinery industry has basically bottomed out, and it is unlikely that there will continue to be a significant decline in the future.

From the data analysis, whether it is from the total output value, profits, or from the perspective of export performance, there have been some positive signals in the industry's economic operation, the industry has gradually increased month by month, and the industry's production and sales rate has generally shown a slight upward trend.

From the policy level, Cai Weici stated that the relevant departments have continuously and centrally examined and approved 25 urban rail transit construction projects, 10 sewage treatment plant projects, 13 highway engineering projects, and 7 projects involving port terminals and navigation channels. All kinds of signs indicate that the relevant departments have shifted their previous "observation" to substantively promoting the "steady growth" of the real economy.

Therefore, Cai Weici optimistically estimated that in 2012, the growth rate of major economic indicators of the machinery industry declined significantly compared with the previous year, but it is still expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year.

In 2013, the development of the machinery industry will withstand downward pressure from the previous year, and the situation is still tight.

On the one hand, the rapid economic growth supported by the rapid growth of demand in China's early industrialization period will inevitably slow down as the demand growth slows.

On the other hand, the ever-increasing demand for quality of growth will force the machinery industry to accelerate innovation-driven; although it is a arduous process to achieve innovation-driven, and has not yet seen the extraordinary growth opportunities brought about by major technological breakthroughs, high-end equipment manufacturing industry And other strategic emerging industries will eventually become the new support point for achieving sustained growth in the future.

Therefore, the machinery industry will not be able to achieve ultra-high growth in the future, but it will still maintain a moderate growth. Cai Weici believes that in the short term, the whole industry still needs to have a "tight day" ideological preparation.

The four major causes affecting development Cai Weici are also reflecting on why the development of the machinery industry has been smooth and sustained rapid growth in recent years, but it has fallen into a passive state since entering the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. In addition to the many objective difficulties mentioned above, the industry itself What are the problems with the development approach?

He said that from a phenomenal point of view, in the past 10 years, the industry has indeed made rapid progress, and its appearance has indeed undergone tremendous changes. However, the entire industry has over-emphasized "hard" and "hard" capabilities, while not simultaneously strengthening "software" and "Soft" capability. The industry's "magic" performance in the following four aspects:

First, the expansion of production capacity has run out of control, the production capacity has been excessively surplus, the vicious competition has continued, and the price of products has declined. The investment for capacity expansion everywhere is still growing at a high rate. The increasingly vicious competition has severely weakened the profitability of the industry and distorted the normal market competition order.

The second is over-reliance on investment-driven, ignoring innovation-driven, "mind" development is not enough. The improvement of the research and development conditions is not enough, and the ability to innovate is improved slowly. Therefore, the level and quality of products cannot be improved simultaneously. This has caused China's machinery industry to be "excessively large" and "excessive" known for its extreme processing and manufacturing capabilities that have been among the highest in the world. However, the extreme processing capabilities known as "super-precision", "ultra-micro" and "special processing" are still relatively weak, and even exist gap.

The third is to despise the "soft power", "experience" and "accumulation" is not enough. Relying on imported key components, mainframe products have made rapid progress. Many of them have become the world leaders in terms of output and stand-alone level, but the development of high-end components featuring high reliability, high precision, and brand reputation is lagging behind. The gap between the non-material elements (so-called "soft" capabilities) such as R&D, design, testing, digital manufacturing technology, management, intellectual property, marketing (especially international marketing), brand, and personnel quality is far from the developed countries.

Fourth, the concept of "heredity" is still deeply affected by the backward concept. Affected by the thought of planned economy, a considerable number of companies are still accustomed to passively waiting for users to place orders based on the spectrum of their existing products. They are not suited to the final requirements of the users to plan and provide personalized “complete solutions”. .