Listen to the steel city's "voice": selling steel as fried futures
Mr. Shi, a Guangzhou-based stock trader, told reporters that his arbitrage on steel this year is even more than the one he earned from trading in steel last year. "I am sticking with more orders and I die, but the pressure is obvious. Ah. "A futures investor told reporters on the morning of March 19. This is the third day after rebar rose on March 16. For three days, the rebar did not rise sharply as the bulls expected, and the trend was weaker. However, for steel traders who stockpile goods before the holiday, rising rebar prices have brought huge profits. Long game of long and short fierce half a month later, the rebar 1010 main contract finally broke out on March 16. The same day, rebar 1010 main contract opened within an hour trend moderate, during which two slightly pulled seek a breakthrough failed. At 10:08, the daily rebar suddenly pulled up, all the way skyrocketed, eventually closing at 4780 yuan / ton, 2.71% of the increase into the day's most shiny varieties. Active trading intraday, traded 3.01 million hand positions significantly increased by 201,000 to 1,018,000 hand-hand. From the main contract week 1009 rebar performance, long and short divergence between the two sides further increased, the game is extremely fierce. March 15, Hebei Iron and Steel, Anshan Iron and Steel, Wuhan Iron and Steel and other leading steel mills have raised the April steel prices, of which Hebei Iron and Steel increased by 400 yuan. In news and other good news to stimulate, March 16 rebar rose, but did not admit defeat short. March 16, the Shanghai Commodity Exchange positions data show that the Department of Zhejiang into 1010 main force large-scale contracts, including Zhejiang Yong substantial Masukura more than 11,000 single hand, once again back to the first long bulls; Xinhu Futures massive Masukura 22,000 , Second place; with the spot background of the China Steel Futures increase empty single 17000 hand. The 18 positions from the point of view, the rebar 1010 main contract single single up to 296,126 hand, the empty single reached 398,799 hands, more than the former a whole lot more than 100,000 hands, a large number of sets of lurking one of them. Empty single inside, in addition to more sets of policies, but also can see a single empty positions are quite concentrated. March 18, 1010 main contract positions in the top five seats have reached more than 30,000 hands, of which Haitong Futures, Zhejiang Yong, China Steel Futures positions reached more than 50,000 hands. Spot hedging benefits Profound rebar sudden force, set of policies, especially with a year ago hoarding of steel traders lucrative. Mr. Shi is a steel trader in Guangzhou. On March 16, Mr. Shi told reporters that his arbitrage on the term steel was even more than the one earned by his steel trade for one year. Mr. Shi said last year's steel trade fell hard and did not make any money. At the end of the year, he still had nearly 10,000 tons of rebar stockpiles. Before the Spring Festival, rebar prices dropped again and again. Many traders who bought goods at high prices before the price cut had very limited profits. For such a situation, the reporter before the Spring Festival in Foshan Le steel market has also been aware. At present, traders pre-stockpile cost is relatively high, but in the previous case of losses, once the price drastically increased, the cash-on-delivery will be very strong. Mr. Shi's rebar cost is low at 3700 yuan / tonne, and hedging, warehousing and other expenses on May contracts cost 50-60 yuan per tonne per month to 4300 yuan / ton, stone Mr.'s hedging policy, income per ton up to 400 yuan. Galaxy Futures analyst Liu Huiru told reporters that many steel mills last year, said frankly did not make any money, and now many mills and traders have tried short hedging on the steel. "Shagang has long been the first to enter, although the initial pay some tuition, but to make corporate income more stable, clearly tasted the hedging sweetness." "In the futures market, the main contract Rb1010 trend reflects hedging arbitrage, once the market Price increases are too high, hedge funds will rush into. "Liu Huiru said. Shanghai Commodity Exchange positions data show that on March 18, rebar 1009 main contract empty square seats, the spot background of the China Steel Futures and Sha Steel Group positions reached 50,000 and 28,000 hands respectively. "Spot dealers short selling is more cost-effective, large steel mills will also be actively involved, and gradually there will be a larger empty list." Li Xuesong told reporters. Optimistic about the market outlook A number of market participants interviewed by reporters said that the sharp rise in rebar prices was mainly driven by costs. Money Weekly reporter access to historical data found that in the past five years, each spring there will be a price increase iron ore negotiations on the price negotiations, except in 2009, except by the financial crisis. Each price increase gave rise to the current thread spot price pull up help. "If the price increase is less than 90% of the requirements of the three major mines, I think it will reach 70%? D80%." GF futures analyst Wang Jian told reporters. Wang Jian believes that on the basis of price increases, but also depends on the demand. Demand is not significantly improved downstream, but demand has been rising. "I surveyed last week in Beijing and Shanghai. After the survey, I feel spot stocks are flat or slightly down from the same period of last year. From the volume point of view, Beijing traders can sell 1,000 to 2,000 tons a day." Guotai Junan Analyst Wei Bo Told reporters. On March 16, the reporter contacted Wang Zhaoxian, deputy director of South China Futures Institute, by phone and asked him about his views on the domestic commodity market. "The current futures market adjustment has been put in place, at least already stabilized, the market outlook will consolidate the direction of choice." Wang Zhaoxian opinion, the current futures market is still in the adjustment trend, but the stage has been to target, the next will be repeated shocks. For the rebar market outlook, Wang Zhao told reporters, "After a period of consolidation, the steel may continue upside." Jinpeng Futures vice president Yu Menguo also said long-term bullish, but a great pressure to break the previous highs.
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