The domestic plan is "clear" at the end of the year. Is Tesla coming?

This is not the first time that Tesla has made domestic news.

On October 26, the Ministry of Commerce stated at the press conference that Tesla is negotiating with the Shanghai Municipal Government to establish a factory. Prior to this, foreign media reported that Tesla has reached an agreement with the Shanghai Municipal Government on building a manufacturing plant in Shanghai and is expected to establish a wholly-owned factory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone. At present, the two parties are still negotiating time and other details of the announcement.

The official responsible for the new energy vehicle project of the Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission subsequently claimed that: "There is no agreement on Tesla's design of a wholly-owned manufacturing facility in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone." The relevant person in charge of Tesla China accepted the "China In an interview with the “Business” reporter, quoted in a statement released in June this year, responded: “To better serve the Chinese market, Tesla is discussing with the Shanghai municipal government the possibility of building a factory in the area. As communicated before, this year By the end of the year, Tesla’s domestic plans will be clearer."

In fact, Tesla's founder and CEO, Elon Musk, has always had a keen interest in the Chinese market as the originator of Internet-based car manufacturers. Musk often appears in China with the image of Junjie Technology, and has a star-like influence. This influence also helped Tesla become the only foreign car manufacturer that has achieved wide recognition and influence in the Chinese electric vehicle market, but at the same time It is also the only foreign car company that has not yet set up a production base in China. How Tesla will eventually land in the Chinese market has always been a concern.

Food first

Although the rumors of establishing a factory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone in the form of wholly-owned investment have not been confirmed by Tesla, Tesla’s two special moves are significant.

Tesla held a large-scale campus recruitment on the second day of the rumors. The total number of jobs for recruitment was close to 500. At the same time, Tesla spokesperson said on campus recruitment that the company has set up an R&D center in Beijing and there will soon be one in China. Support research and development team. Although there are no R&D positions in campus recruiting, it is stated on the official website that it is recruiting R&D. It requires more than a year of work experience and even a doctoral degree.

In addition to large-scale campus recruitment, Tesla has also done a major event in Shanghai. Tesla China stated that its largest supercharged station in the world is the completion of the Lilac International Business Center in Pudong New Area, Shanghai. The charging station can accommodate 50 Tesla batteries at the same time, and is currently the largest super charging station in Asia. Some people in the industry pointed out: If it is not made in Shanghai, Tesla will be such a big cost? From this perspective, it can also be shown that the credibility of rumors is high. The Tesla full line model changed to a new national standard charging interface, has been ready for localization.

According to public statistics, Tesla has cumulatively sold approximately 12,000 imported cars from January to September in the Chinese market. In terms of Chinese market share, Tesla has occupied 4% of the market share of China's rechargeable electric vehicle market. The degree of importance for Tesla can be imagined. Li Yanwei, a member of the Expert Committee of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said: "Tesla's construction in China is equivalent to occupying a place in the world's fastest growing electric vehicle market. At the same time, the construction and procurement in China can reduce production costs for Tesla. However, if Tesla builds its factory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, it will still have to pay 25% of the import tariff on electric vehicles sold in the Chinese market.

It is worth noting that Tesla’s rumors of building factories in China mentioned “sole investment”, which is an unprecedented way for foreign companies to build factories in China. For Tesla, sole proprietorship means avoiding leakage of technical information and other content. In addition, the establishment of a wholly-owned factory in the Free Trade Zone can take advantage of the cost advantages of China's manufacturing industry, reduce costs, and have the opportunity to become a manufacturing center covering Asia. The main thing is that building a plant in China can solve Tesla's current capacity bottleneck.

"For Tesla, the potential of the Chinese market has not yet been fully tapped. With the cost reduction after localization, the price will be closer to the people and will be recognized by more consumers." National passenger car market information joint Secretary-General Cui Dongshu said.

not sure yet

In the past three years, Tesla’s rumors of building factories in China have never stopped. As early as 2014, it was reported that Tesla will cooperate with JAC. In 2015, during the visit to China, Musk expressed his hope to establish a design and production base in China within three years. At that time, some people in the industry believed that Tesla’s establishment of a factory in China had basically been finalized. However, in the rumors of the past two years, Tesla has no more official plans to build factories in China.

In 2016, Tesla once again set off a game of investment and construction in China. In March 2016, the relevant government of Suzhou also held a special meeting to discuss the Tesla Motors project in Suzhou. Musk also publicly stated that it would strive to establish Tesla's domestic partners in China in 2016, but its localization Not smooth.

After cooperating with Suzhou, it was reported in May 2016 that Tesla had talks with Guangzhou Auto Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Guangzhou Automobile Group”) and conducted a field trip in Nansha, Guangzhou. According to the news, Guangdong Province is full of sincerity for Tesla and expects Tesla to settle in Guangdong Province. The relevant leaders have repeatedly contacted the Tesla team.

After that, rumors about Tesla's establishment of a factory in China were all related to Shanghai. In June 2016, it was rumored that Tesla would enter into a non-binding memorandum with Shanghai Jinqiao Group, stating that both parties would invest RMB 30 billion each to establish a production plant in Shanghai, followed by clarification by Shanghai Jinqiao Group, and the rumor was not true.

Tesla’s rumors about building factories in China are frequent this year. In February, there were rumors that Tesla and the Chinese car companies would jointly build a factory with an annual capacity of 500,000 vehicles in Lingang, Shanghai, which was subsequently negated by both parties. In April, it was reported that Tesla planned to establish a wholly-owned factory in Guangdong. The site has already been selected. It only needs to wait for approval from the relevant government departments. However, Tesla still denied the news. In June, informed sources disclosed that Tesla and Shanghai were close to reaching an agreement to build a factory in Lingang Development Zone in Shanghai. The factory will be built in China. It was rumored to have fermented for a day. After that, Shanghai Lingang and Tesla have denied each other.

In this rumor of Tesla’s sole-funded establishment of a factory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, Tesla stressed in his response: “Tesla has been deeply committed to the Chinese market; to better serve the markets around the world, Tesla is also continuously evaluating the location of potential manufacturing plants worldwide. Although it is expected that most of the production will still be completed in the United States, Tesla needs to set up overseas factories to ensure that more local consumers can afford us. The product."

“The reason why Tesla built a factory in China has been left unresolved because of the limitation on the ratio of joint ventures in China. Foreign companies need to have joint ventures with local companies in China, and Chinese companies’ shareholdings should not be less than 50%. But Tesla has always hoped for sole investment. "There is a car analyst. However, the spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce stated publicly that the Chinese government will quickly formulate policies and measures to reduce restrictions on foreign investment in the field of new energy vehicle manufacturing and continue to promote opening up in this area. "Tesla is a company with innovative technology, may give a certain degree of particularity in the policy." Cui Dongshu said.

Or will be

Relevant policies show that foreign car companies that want to invest in and build factories in China need to have joint ventures with local companies, and the shareholding of local companies should not be less than 50%. Therefore, Tesla wants to invest in building factories in China, but also wants to avoid the way to establish joint ventures with local companies. From the policy point of view, it is also not allowed, and the policy may become its biggest challenge.

However, related policies have gradually relaxed. The “Long-Term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry” released in April this year mentions “improving the internal and external investment management system and orderly liberalizing the equity ratio limit of joint ventures”. In August, the State Council issued the “Circular on Measures to Promote the Growth of Foreign Investment” (Gufa [2017] No. 39), in which the “reduction of foreign investment restrictions” section specifically mentioned the opening of new energy vehicle manufacturing, indicating that this year In the first half of the year, new energy vehicles and other areas have further relaxed their access to foreign capital.

In September, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned in an open meeting that the next step would be to further liberalize foreign investment in areas such as new energy vehicles, and will continue to streamline foreign investment management procedures and support major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen to take the lead in increasing Reform efforts.

In September, at the press conference of the Ministry of Commerce, a spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce publicly stated that the Chinese government will quickly study the introduction of policies and measures to reduce the restrictions on foreign investment in the field of new energy vehicles and continue to promote opening up in this area.

The degree of emphasis on the development of the new energy automobile market at the government level will affect the policy changes. Musk or saw the opportunity to always insist on his own conditions unshakeable.

According to another source, the establishment of the plant is the result of the mediation of US President Trump, and Trump will visit China on November 8. If the rumors come true, the meeting will come to an end.

Capacity bottleneck

After the release of Model 3, Musk promised to complete the production of 1500 Model 3 in the third quarter of this year, but Tesla is currently facing the production problem at the only factory in California. The production bottleneck caused the production of only 260 in the third quarter. The actual delivery of 220 vehicles was far below expectations. Muskofft Tweets said: "We are in deep shortage." And announced that Tesla's semi-autonomous driving truck will be postponed until November, the company will now focus on solving the production bottlenecks encountered.

The Model 3 is positioned as an entry-level vehicle and is expected to drive the growth of Tesla's sales, but because of insufficient capacity, production has not kept pace with the projected plan. Industry insiders believe that in the surging electric vehicle market, Tesla's lack of capacity will seriously affect its subsequent development. If Tesla decides to build a plant in China, it is expected to start construction in 2019 or 2020, which is expected to reduce Tesla’s capacity problems and ease production pressure.

In addition, the financial report showed Tesla’s net loss of US$330 million in the first quarter and net loss of US$401 million in the second quarter, as all Tesla models are currently manufactured in the United States and exported to other countries, with high transportation costs and inefficiencies. . Once a successful plant is established in China, it can directly reduce the difficulty of supply in the Chinese market and reduce costs to some extent.