New energy vehicle promotion adheres to public routes

The automotive industry is looking forward to a long-term "energy-saving and new energy automotive industry development plan (2012-2020)", this week finally officially promulgated by the State Council. This will be a document that will have a major impact on China's auto industry in the next decade.

The plan determines the main technical route for pure energy vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles as new energy vehicles. By 2015, the cumulative production and sales volume of these two types of new energy vehicles will reach 500,000 vehicles; by 2020, the production capacity will reach 2 million vehicles. Accumulated production and sales exceeded 5 million.

If this goal can be achieved, China's auto industry will achieve a strategic transformation. However, it is obvious that based on the current market of new energy vehicles, it is necessary to achieve "planned goals" that are "like help." This time, new energy vehicle planning can no longer "blob cowhide"?

"'Hop and jump' is achievable"

The plan has determined the energy saving and new energy vehicle technology line: “The pure electric drive is the main strategic orientation for the development of new energy vehicles and the transformation of the automobile industry. The current focus is on promoting the industrialization of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, and promoting popularization of non- Plug-in hybrid vehicles and energy-saving internal combustion engine vehicles will improve the overall technology level of China's auto industry."

One of the major industrialization goals identified by the plan is: “The cumulative production and sales volume of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will reach 500,000 units by 2015; by 2020, the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach It has reached 2 million units, and its cumulative production and sales volume has surpassed 5 million. The fuel cell vehicles and automotive hydrogen energy industries have been developing in parallel with the international market."

“This goal 'jumps and hops' is achievable.” In response to questions from the outside world about planning objectives, Su Bo, deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said.

Su Bo introduced that as of the end of 2011, China has promoted 16,834 energy-saving and new energy vehicles in public services in 25 cities, reaching more than 35% of the expected number of promotions. Therefore, "if we only look at the current promotion speed, it is indeed difficult to achieve the goal of 500,000 vehicles and face greater challenges."

However, he disclosed that four ministries and commissions organized experts to conduct many arguments and discussions, and extensively heard opinions from industry experts, major domestic automobiles, and battery motor companies. "Everyone thinks that although this goal is relatively high, it has guiding, inspiring and certain challenges to the development of the industry. It is believed that through joint efforts of all sectors, it can be achieved."

The goal is no more than the basis for doubting the excessively high level of planning for new energy vehicles in the US, Japan, and Europe. It is mainly due to the previous “Regulations on the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Automobile Industry”. This plan proposes that from 2009 to 2011, “the production capacity of new energy vehicles such as 500,000 pure electric vehicles, rechargeable hybrid vehicles, and ordinary hybrid vehicles will be produced. New energy vehicle sales account for about 5% of the total passenger car sales. "In the end, the industrialization of new energy vehicles is far less than policy expectations.

This time, the new energy vehicle plan has abandon the general hybrid vehicles with the most mature conditions for mass marketization, and only relies on pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles that are still in the industrialized eve. It takes less than 10 years. In the meantime, it is difficult to imagine the scale of production and sales of 5 million vehicles.

However, Zhang Zhiyong, an automotive analyst, is happy to watch this goal: “5 million vehicles can absolutely achieve.” His reason is that in the current limit of automobile sales in big cities, only pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles can not only “ "Green light" is not restricted, but there are also a number of tax incentives and financial subsidies. The next step in the procurement of official vehicles is to have a large proportion of new energy vehicles. "Now new energy vehicles can be said to be a combination of thousands of pets. Once the market starts, the growth rate will be very impressive."

Taking China as the world's largest automotive market, the development target of new energy vehicles is not very radical compared with the United States, Japan, Europe and other regions. For example, in the United States, the number of electric vehicles to be maintained will reach 1 million in 2015; Germany will have 1 million electric vehicles in 2020; Japan plans to occupy pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2020. The total number of passenger cars is 15%-20%.

Promotional policies still take the public route However, the goal is not important. How to promote the start of the new energy automobile market as soon as possible is the most important issue.

The new energy vehicle plan thinks: “New energy vehicles are still in the initial stages of industrialization, and they need to increase policy support, actively promote pilot demonstrations, accelerate the cultivation of markets, and promote technological advancement and industrial development.” But the plan did not propose more specific Promotion measures are expected to be implemented in the next implementation details.

The planning requirements are: “Continuing the pilot demonstration of new energy vehicles. Expanding the demonstration scope of new energy vehicles in the public service sector in large and medium-sized cities, and launching pilot private subsidies for new energy vehicles, focusing on launching new energy vehicles in pilot cities identified by the state. Product performance verification and comprehensive evaluation of production use, after-sales service, and battery recycling. Exploring commercially viable market promotion models, coordinating the development of charging facilities, and forming an effective mechanism for piloting technological progress and industrial development.”

In terms of financial support, “subsidies for demonstrations of energy-saving and new energy vehicles in the public service sector, private purchases of new energy vehicles, encourage consumers to purchase and use energy-saving vehicles, and play a guiding role in government procurement to gradually increase energy consumption and new energy sources for public agencies. The scale of the car."

In this promotion idea, increasing the application of new energy vehicles in the public service area is still the focus. Prior to this, 25 cities in China launched pilot promotion in the public sector and achieved certain results. However, the trials of private energy vehicle purchases in five cities are difficult.

Zhang Zhiyong believes that through the large-scale use of new energy vehicles by large enterprises, government agencies, and government procurement, the market can be started faster, and the construction of charging facilities will be promoted. When the use environment is perfect, individual consumers will follow suit and accept. electric car. "Starting from ordinary consumers and letting individuals bear the risk of starting a new energy automobile market, it is very difficult for them to go through."