NDRC expects oil prices to fluctuate significantly

Although the international crude oil price was relatively stable in May, the price of crude oil has recently dropped sharply from US$72.5 to US$68.5 per barrel, causing people’s concern. The latest report from the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center predicts that with the arrival of the summer, uncertain factors affecting oil production and demand will increase, and oil prices may fluctuate in the future in large amounts.

The report analyzes that the main reasons for the relatively stable oil prices in May were: US crude oil inventories were basically stable, while gasoline inventories continued to rise; OPEC promised to work hard to guarantee crude oil supply and maintain oil price stability; Iran’s nuclear issue did not deteriorate further; there was no major Abrupt incidents, speculative funds do not have much speculation theme.

Experts from the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission believe that as the Northern Hemisphere enters the summer, energy consumption will peak again, and the demand for electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal will increase. Coupled with the seasonal increase in the number of people traveling in the United States, Europe and other countries and regions, gasoline consumption will also increase. With oil supply and demand still tightly balanced, the increase in demand will drive the price of oil to rise by a certain margin. In addition, after entering the summer, marine hurricane activities are frequent and crude oil production risks increase, which also provides an opportunity for international speculative fund speculation. At the same time, although the Iranian nuclear issue has not deteriorated further, due to fundamental differences between Iran and the United States and Europe, it will be difficult to effectively solve them in the short term. As the turmoil in Nigeria continues, its crude oil production may be affected at any time. Once there are signs of trouble, the international oil market price will be greatly affected.

At the same time, the center stated that although there may be large fluctuations in international oil prices in the coming period, it is unlikely that there will be sustained and substantial increases.

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