In 2030, automobile production and sales 75 million vehicles?

At the just-concluded Global Auto Forum, Edward Prescott, the 2004 Nobel Prize winner in economics and Federal Reserve economist, boldly predicted that by 2030, China’s economic growth rate will slow down, but then it will be four times as rich as it is now. . He predicts that the production and sales of automobiles will exceed 40 million by 2020, and by the year 2030, the production and sales of Chinese automobiles will reach 75 million. At that time, China’s population will reach 1.5 billion, and the per capita car ownership will reach 800 thousand, which will reach the United States. The current level or higher. Until 2040, China will continue to increase car ownership.

Some industry insiders have expressed different opinions about this bold prediction. Li Shaozhu, general manager of Dongfeng Motors deputy general manager of Dongfeng Motor, said that China’s auto production and sales volume of 40 million will be a little too optimistic in 2020, unless it increases exports to foreign countries. He said that the rapid development of high-speed rail, subway and other public transportation will divert automobile consumption, and the national road network construction will take time. However, he also said that in the next 10 years, along with the start of the rural market, the employment development of a large number of talented people, and the importance attached to domestic demand, the auto market has a 10-year golden period of development.

Jay Kunkel, president of Continental Group Asia and member of the automotive group's board of directors, said that the market size of more than 20 million vehicles in 2015 is predictable, but the scale of more than 40 million vehicles in 2020 is not yet available. However, with the increase in manufacturing costs, the western region will be a new investment area for the development of the automotive industry. Zhang Xiaoyu, executive vice president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry, said that in the next 10-20 years, the auto industry as a pillar industry will continue to grow at the same pace as GDP growth.