How far is the heavy truck from spring?

HSBC China released a report a few days ago that HSBC China’s initial manufacturing PMI index for October was 49.1, the highest in three months, and the new orders index also rose to a six-month high, which also means that CPI and PPI are near the bottom. The price of cement and steel also rebounded. It is expected that the price index in the fourth quarter may rise moderately, and signs of domestic demand recovery have begun to show.

Will the truck hit a bottoming rebound in the fourth quarter?

Economic stabilization stabilized

The power generation data released by the State Electricity Regulatory Commission has seen a glimmer of light. From the end of September to the present, power generation began to pick up slowly. The data monitored by the State Electricity Regulatory Commission shows that on October 21st, the accumulated power generation capacity of the dispatched diameters increased by 3.34% on a year-on-year basis. On October 22, the cumulative power generation capacity of the dispatched diameters increased by 3.43% on a year-on-year basis. Relevant sources said that the daily power generation data show that the economic operation has been from the early stabilization to bottoming out.

The volume of road traffic directly related to trucks has increased steadily. According to data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, road freight volume and cargo turnover increased by 14% and 16% respectively year-on-year in the first three quarters. For the fourth quarter, the foundation of the association’s judgment on stabilization of the macro economy will be further consolidated, and the development of the logistics industry is expected to steadily increase.

In the third quarter economic data release, Sheng Laiyun, a spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that economic indicators have started to pick up. This is mainly reflected in the fact that the falling range of the main indicators has narrowed, and the growth rate of some indicators has been accelerating. This is true of the gross domestic product (GDP), industrial added value above designated size, and fixed asset investment growth in the third quarter.

These signals are undoubtedly "good voices" for the sluggish truck market.

Will the bottom rebound in the fourth quarter?

This year's truck market, "Jinjiu," has been bathed, and the "silver ten" is not optimistic. The data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on October 16 showed that the sales volume of commercial vehicles in September was 301,800, which was a year-on-year decrease of 7.59%, and the decline was larger than last month. Among them, the sales of trucks were 209,500, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, and the cumulative total of the previous nine months decreased by 5.5% year-on-year; the sales of semi-trailer tractors were 13,400, a decrease of 43.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative total of the first nine months dropped by 28.4%.

Truck companies are also cautious about the fourth quarter. A truck company official even stated that this year is also the case. The lack of motivation in the export sector, the global economic slowdown has raised trade protectionism, and the trade protection measures implemented by advanced economies have increased dramatically; domestic demand will not have much improvement; commercial vehicles Affected by the investment. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has closely approved a number of projects. However, the construction of these projects has to be completed at the earliest possible time. This means that the truck industry will not be able to obtain direct investment this year.

Lin Fenghua, chairman of Bohai Pistons, believes that commercial vehicles are mainly driven by investment. In the past few years, the country’s 4 trillion yuan investment has basically been invested in infrastructure. Commercial vehicles are needed to promote the purchase of cars. The current situation is that users do not have the need to buy a car, and the troika are sluggish. Therefore, commercial vehicles will enter the down cycle this year.

The industry veteran Tan Xiuqing also believes that there is no good reason for the truck market in the fourth quarter. Users have neither the demand nor the market holding volume, which determines that the vehicle cannot be sold.

Do not be too optimistic about the market outlook

Out of the expectation of “Golden September and Silver Day 10,” September truck production has increased significantly from August. From the perspective of capacity, many truck companies expanded their production capacity during the first three years when the market was booming. “Everybody is expanding from 2008 to 2011. From the engine companies, we can see that Weichai, Yuchai, Xichai, and Dongfeng Cummins are all increasing their production capacity. Among truck companies, FAW, Dongfeng, CNHTC, Foton, Shaanxi Auto, Valin is also expanding,” said an industry source. Without thinking, after the increase of production capacity, it encountered a bad year.

This kind of expansion impulse not only comes from the enterprise's pursuit of the market, but also from the government level.