Falling oil prices will benefit the chemical industry in the medium term
As of the close of US time on December 10, international oil prices have been refreshed for more than five years. US NYMEX January crude oil futures fell 2.88 US dollars, or 4.51%, the largest single-day decline since November 2nd, and approached the 60 US dollar mark, reported 60.94 US dollars / barrel, the lowest since July 2009, Tao Zhang? CE Buren January-month crude oil futures fell by 2.60 U.S. dollars, or 3.89%, to 64.24 U.S. dollars per barrel, which was the lowest since July 2009.
The data shows that it is expected that the consumption structure of oil will remain stable for a long period of time. Among them, the transportation industry accounts for about 60% of the oil consumption, and the industrial consumption is maintained at about 25%. Unlike the drop in oil prices, which is directly beneficial to the delivery industry, oil prices have fallen in the short term or in some sub-sectors that are bad for the chemical industry. However, after the price of oil falls and prices stabilize, the cost reduction will bring real benefits to the industry.
Industry profitability has improved
In the light of the drop in oil prices and the unfavorable effect of the downstream peak season, the prices of chemical products have been soft in the near-term as a whole, and some products have lost their cost support and have fallen all the way to new lows in recent years. According to the latest monitoring data from the Business Club, the domestic chemical market continued to decline in the 48th week of December 2014 (December 1 to December 5), and there was no signal of stabilization and stabilization at the moment.
Business community chemical analyst Zhang Ming pointed out that the crude oil cost of the upper reaches of the conduction, so that the petrochemical industry chain is the most affected, coupled with the market demand is light, the styrene, benzene, toluene, xylene, phenol, acetone, aniline market further push To the abyss, the price of styrene, acetone and other products set a new low during the year, it will also drag the entire chemical industry to the depth of the adjustment track.
However, he also pointed out that according to the specific supply and demand pattern of the industry, it is expected that the price trend of different products will be different. Brokerage analysts pointed out that the short-term decline in oil prices will be bad for the industry, but it is expected that the downward trend in oil prices will be difficult to change in the medium term. It is expected that after prices stabilize, companies will benefit from the cost reduction.
The Ping An Securities Research Report pointed out that the last round of oil price crash occurred during the 2008 financial crisis. Research on the impact of the previous round of oil price plummet on the chemical industry can be found. First, the impact of falling oil prices is large, causing downward pressure on inorganic chemicals and rubber. Other chemicals that did not fall in the earlier period of decline, prices have also fallen over time, but the magnitude is lower than the price of oil. As for the impact on corporate earnings, the early fall in the price of oil has resulted in poor overall industry profitability due to inventory adjustments. In addition, the impact of falling oil prices on the direction and intensity of various sub-sectors is quite different. Some sub-sectors' profit margins are expected to improve significantly in this round of declines.
Sub-sector costs have dropped significantly
Sub-sectors with some growth in demand, lower customer price sensitivity, and better competition will directly benefit from the drop in oil prices, and have a clear role in increasing gross profit margins and improving profitability of textile chemicals, polyesters, and modified plastics.
The demand for modified plastics for automobiles has been relatively stable in recent years. The main raw materials for this type of product are various plastics downstream of the oil, and the overall price correlation with crude oil prices is strong. Due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices in the second half of this year, the fourth quarter saw an accelerated decline. With the prices of crude oil and related downstream plastic raw materials declining, the gross profit margin and profitability of the industry are expected to improve.
The drop in oil prices will also significantly reduce the cost of the chemical fiber industry. Compared with the chemical fiber industry such as nylon, polyester, etc. with overcapacity, the sub-sectors such as demanding spandex and high-end polyester industrial yarns will directly benefit from the significant drop in raw material costs.
In addition, the textile auxiliaries industry will also benefit from the drop in oil prices. It is understood that the cost of raw materials for auxiliaries accounts for about 90% of the production cost, while more than 60% of the raw materials are for petrochemical products. As the price of crude oil falls, the profitability of the industry will be improved.
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