·Automobiles buy dark tides, and their own brands are fleeing or fighting

From the announcement of the announcement to the implementation of the car purchase limit of only 20 minutes, the Shenzhen Municipal Government's "race against time" move set a new record of "sneak attack" restrictions. When Shenzhen ordered a purchase, the Chinese auto market once again fell into a “collective panic”, and the hot car buying scene after the restrictions on purchases in Tianjin and Hangzhou began to repeat itself.
However, "panic consumption" has not brought much benefit to China's own brands. In cities that currently implement car purchase restrictions, most of them use the lottery and auction license plates to allocate incremental configurations. When the time cost of buying a car is getting higher and higher, the self-owned brand that was once not trusted by consumers and squeezed in the market competition is difficult to match the joint venture model.
With the increasing number of cities that implement automobile purchase restrictions, their own brands have been forced to retreat, but as a result of their constant escape, they have handed over the market to the joint venture brand, and the market resources have been exhausted. Now, the choice placed before them is whether to continue to flee or face the battle. If the outcome of the escape and the battle is death, is the latter more powerful?
The car is limited to buying dark tides, and the seemingly blocked roads still contain many opportunities. For the self-owned brand, the moment of blowing the horn has arrived.
The "semi-night chicken call" car purchase restriction triggered panic consumption. At 17:40 on December 29, 2014, it was a day worth remembering. The Shenzhen Municipal Government specially chose to hold a press conference at this time, and issued the "Notice of the Shenzhen Municipal People's Government on the Implementation of the Incremental Regulation and Management of Small Cars", and decided to implement the car purchase restriction from 18:00 on the same day. The city's small car increment index is tentatively set at 100,000 per year (including 20,000 electric cars), and the annual indicators are adjusted according to traffic, atmospheric environment and automobile demand; 80,000 ordinary car indicators per year, 50% use the lottery 50% take the bid.
Although the confidentiality work was done fairly well, the purchase restriction document was published on the Internet before 4 pm. To this end, Shenzhen City has made a "trick", a multi-departmental "law enforcement team" blocked some 4S stores, prohibiting car transactions. Therefore, even consumers who are fortunate enough to know in advance, may not be able to do so before the implementation of the purchase restriction.
In the “two sessions” of Guangdong Province in January 2014, Shenzhen Mayor Xu Qin promised that Shenzhen would not be allowed to buy private cars. Prior to this, Wang Binbin, deputy director of the Shenzhen Public Security Bureau, also said that if Shenzhen issued a policy on the restriction of the number limit, "there will be a wide range of opinions, and there will be no sudden attacks."
The relevant leaders will come forward to appease the emotions and prevent excessive car increments caused by the snapping. In the absence of any public comments, the purchase restriction will be suddenly issued and the 4S shop will be blocked in advance. It can be said that Shenzhen has learned the lessons of Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Hangzhou and has achieved the ultimate in "controlling the car". As for the resulting dissatisfaction, it can be explained by "good faith lies." For the Shenzhen citizens, after opposition and indignation, they can only deeply regret it.
Why should we limit the purchase of cars to cover up and dare not get the table to discuss? Because the car contains too many negative factors, smog, congestion, environmental damage, cars are the culprit. Beijing's short-lived "APEC Blue" is realized by various measures such as factory shutdowns in the surrounding provinces, limited single and double numbers, and holiday of enterprises and institutions, but the main reasons are counted in the car head.
The data of the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau's Atmospheric Environment Management Office shows that in the composition of PM2.5 pollutants in Beijing, direct and indirect emissions of motor vehicles account for 22%, coal pollution accounts for 16.7%, industrial spraying accounts for 16.3%, and urban dust pollution accounts for 16.3%. 16%, rural straw burning accounted for 4.5%, and 24.5% came from the surrounding areas of Beijing. Zhang Dawei, director of the Beijing Environmental Monitoring Center, said that in 2013, the average annual PM2.5 source in Beijing accounted for 31.1% of motor vehicles. In the PM2.5 source during the APEC meeting, motor vehicles accounted for 47.3% and motor vehicle contribution rate increased by 16 percentage points.
When a large number of surrounding polluting factories are shut down, the “contribution rate” of the car to PM2.5 will naturally increase. Because of "APEC Blue," people who don't know the truth have added a few more points to the car's hostility. In Beijing, which does not pollute factories, to find the culprit of smog, the car is naturally the best target.
When the haze has filled most of China for a long time, the aversion of cars in various cities has reached a critical point. Therefore, the government’s decision to conceal the purchase restriction will be considered wise. Some people have summed up a theorem. When the relevant departments and even city leaders are emphasizing "unlimited purchases," it means that the city is about to "crow the chicken in the middle of the night."
Shenzhen is the eighth city in China's auto purchases. Its municipal transportation and road construction are still good, and they have already decided to make purchases. Those cities that can enter the critical point of “extreme congestion” during the peak period are even more heart-wrenching. Because of the inability to get a definitive answer, consumers' anxiety is multiplied. The public's opacity in car policy can only express helplessness, but there is no chance of appeal. In order to prevent themselves from being accidentally injured, only the advanced consumption is selected.
Before the implementation of the automobile purchase restriction policy, the number of cars in the car has reached 4.8 million. Starting from Guangzhou, the car purchase limit is directly cut. As long as you cross 2 million red lines, you can take a shot of the big hand. Judging from the negative sentiment caused by Shenzhen's purchase restriction, the opacity of the public's auto policy has changed from disappointment to numbness. This kind of pessimism has accelerated the sales growth of the auto market and is also overdrafting the healthy ecology of the auto industry.
If measured by car ownership, Chongqing and Chengdu have already crossed 3 million vehicles, and Suzhou, Qingdao, Xi'an and Nanjing have about 2 million vehicles. They are excellent “seed players”. Of course, there are still some cities that are not on the congestion list. Because they are plagued by smog, they are bound to take the environmental governance as the head, plead guilty to the car, and implement the purchase restriction in advance. Unsurprisingly, the Chinese auto market will usher in the “last madness” in 2015, and the car sales will show even more horrifying figures, showing the “bright scene” of “overdraft consumption”.
The joint venture car company "Xi Da Pu Ben", the self-owned brand toughened?
Shenzhen auto purchases have made the people complain, but they have caused a good voice from foreign media. The German "World News" described Shenzhen's purchase restriction as "the 20-minute trick of the mayor of Shenzhen." In analyzing the impact of purchase restrictions on various car companies, the report of Le Monde believes that German car companies will hardly be affected and may even benefit from it.
Data show that in the first 11 months of 2014, China's overall auto market grew by 6.1% to 21.1 million units, while sales of Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz in China increased by 15.5% year-on-year, and the market share in the first 11 months reached 20.7%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points over the same period in 2013. Among the top-selling models in China in the first 11 months of 2014, the top three were all occupied by Volkswagen, namely LaVida, Sagitar and Jetta, and nine of the top 20 models were Volkswagen.
According to a report in Le Monde, people are more inclined to buy higher-quality cars in one step, especially for luxury cars and SUVs, because of restrictions on license plate distribution. This is a German car company with higher car quality. Great profit.
According to JD Power Asia Pacific's 2014 China New Car Purchase Intention Research SM (NVIS), the European brand is most favored by car buyers, and the purchase intention rate has increased from 31% in 2013 to 41%. Followed by Japanese brands (19%), American brands (14%) and Korean brands (9%). In the Chinese auto market, the space left for independent brands is already small. Among the intended car buyers, the proportion of customers considering purchasing their own brands fell from 27% in 2013 to 16% in 2014, which is the lowest ratio since 2009.
Is the proportion of intentional purchases of independent brands falling because of car purchases? not completely. In the JD Power Asia Pacific survey, the decline in the proportion is most significant in second- and third-tier cities, rather than the first-tier cities that implement restrictions. In second-tier cities, the purchasing intention rate of self-owned brands dropped from 28% in 2013 to 16%; in third-tier cities, the purchasing intention rate of self-owned brands dropped from 42% in 2013 to 20%.
As first-tier cities gradually join the army of restricted purchases, independent brands have basically no place in these cities, and the proportion of intentional purchases has not changed much in recent years. However, the negative impact of first-tier cities on their own brands is extremely damaging, which indirectly affects the purchasing choices of consumers in second- and third-tier cities. Only when self-owned brands retreat to the fourth- and fifth-tier cities, can they temporarily get the chance to survive.
When the joint venture car companies aggressively attacked the second and third tier markets, their own brands have collapsed. When the price advantage of the self-owned brand is also killed by the “cheap car” of the joint venture car company, does the self-owned brand still have the value of survival? The buying tide triggered by the purchase restriction once again pushed the joint venture car companies to the altar. When the whirlwind passed, the left may be devastated.
On the afternoon of December 30, 2014, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued the “Restriction of the Shenzhen Municipal Government's Implementation of the Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy” in its official website. Subsequently, the China Automobile Dealers Association also publicly expressed its opposition. Shen Rong, deputy secretary general of China Automobile Dealers Association, said that the local government introduced a purchase restriction policy, which brought new problems and challenges to the development of the automobile market. At the same time, it did not bring traffic mitigation to the cities that have been restricted, and the purchase restriction has become a scarce resource for the license plate. It is forced to upgrade the automobile consumption, destroying the development of the original automobile market, and appealing to local governments to seek a more scientific way to solve the congestion problem in addition to the purchase restriction.
The industry is worried that this panic buying of cars caused by distrust will take the auto industry to the apex for a few years, and then suddenly fall to the bottom of the tower, will lead to great turmoil in the auto industry. When China's auto sales finally stabilized, when multinational auto companies could make more profits and switch to other developing countries, Chinese automakers may have collapsed in this battle. The excess capacity left behind will cause huge waste and eventually become a burden on society.
Opportunities for self-owned brands: Regaining positions with new energy technologies The US Wall Street Journal specifically mentioned the rapid growth of new energy vehicles in China when evaluating Shenzhen auto purchases. According to the article in The Wall Street Journal, 20,000 of the 100,000 new car licenses in Shenzhen each year are new energy vehicles, which is the highest proportion of cities with limited purchases. This is good news for BYD. At present, BYD Qin electric vehicles are selling well in Shanghai and other places, and the electric vehicles produced in cooperation with Mercedes-Benz have also been listed.
Previously, one reason for the implementation of automobile purchase restrictions in Hangzhou was that the government's pressure to promote electric vehicles was too great. Due to the task and the indicators, Hangzhou had to reduce the consumption of electric vehicles by restricting the purchase of ordinary vehicles. But unfortunately, after the purchase restriction, the private consumption of electric vehicles in Hangzhou did not fully open the situation.
At present, car purchase restrictions have become a "booster" for the completion of new energy vehicle promotion tasks. With the announcement of the list of new energy vehicle pilot cities, each city has received promotion tasks and must reach certain new energy vehicle sales targets. This also allowed the city that did not intend to implement the car purchase restriction to quickly join the army of the purchase restriction.
In the national requirements for pilot cities for new energy vehicles, it was particularly emphasized that from 2013 to 2015, the cumulative amount of new energy vehicles in mega-cities or key areas will not be less than 10,000, and the cumulative amount of promotion in other cities or regions will not be low. At 5,000 vehicles. The original intention was to make the pilot cities do not have the luck and make the use of central financial funds more efficient. However, in order to create political achievements, some cities have set higher requirements for the promotion of new energy vehicles. At present, the number of new energy vehicle indicators given by the city is very exciting, and this is precisely the zone that the joint venture car company has not involved or less involved, which brings opportunities for independent brands.
In 2014, China's new energy vehicles produced more than 60,000 vehicles, surpassing Japan for the first time, becoming the world's second-largest new energy vehicle market after the United States. According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to November 2014, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles totaled 56,700 units, a five-fold increase over the same period last year. Among them, pure electric vehicles produced 25,800 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly 7 times; plug-in hybrid vehicles produced 13,600 units, an increase of nearly 25 times; fuel cell passenger cars produced 6; pure electric commercial vehicles produced 7363, It grew by 188% year-on-year; plug-in hybrid commercial vehicles produced 9,949 units, a year-on-year increase of 245%.
Among the autonomous car companies that produce new energy vehicles, BYD, BAIC and Chery are very active representatives. In the first 11 months of 2014, BYD plug-in hybrid vehicle "Qin" sat in the top spot in the sales of new energy vehicles, with a cumulative sales volume of 12,928 units. In the same period, BAIC E150 EV ranked first in the domestic pure electric vehicle sales list with a sales volume of 5510 units, a sharp increase of 238% year-on-year.
In November 2014, the four ministries and commissions set up a joint investigation team to conduct research on 39 new energy vehicle pilot cities. According to the plan, from 2013 to 2015, 39 cities will promote the promotion of new energy vehicles with 336,000 vehicles, but as of 2014 In September, the amount of promotion completed was only 11.49% of the target amount.
According to the survey, only the three regions of Hefei, Zhejiang and Shanghai have completed relatively well, with 72%, 52% and 40% respectively, while the proportion of new energy vehicles in Changchun, Harbin, Lanzhou and Haikou has been completed. Is 0.
Judging from the completion of new energy vehicle indicators, Zhejiang Province has seen a significant increase in sales of new energy vehicles due to restrictions on purchases in Hangzhou. It is not difficult to see that the promotion of car sales restrictions on the sales of new energy vehicles is extremely significant.
The data shows that the main sales of domestic new energy vehicles in 2014 were completed by independent brands. BYD, Chery, Zotye, BAIC, SAIC and Jianghuai are all on the list, while the contribution rate of joint venture brands is very low. Obviously, under the premise that the sales of ordinary fuel vehicles can guarantee the profits of enterprises, new energy vehicles are intentionally ignored by joint ventures. Even multinational companies such as BMW, GM and Nissan, which have already brought new energy vehicles to the Chinese market, have not adopted new energy vehicles as their key businesses.
In the context of the spread of car purchases to multiple cities, there are not many opportunities left for independent brands. Catering to the policy and launching new energy vehicles that truly meet the needs of consumers will be the key to returning the independent brands to the first-line market and retaining the status of the second and third-tier markets.
Of course, for a city that has a new energy vehicle indicator task, it should be vigilant at this time, and don't miss the short-term benefits of local protection. BYD has been involved in the electric vehicle business for nearly 10 years and has been trapped in the access system of major cities, which has made it difficult for its new energy vehicles to be called. To this day, there are still some cities that prefer to open the door to foreign brands and are not willing to let local companies enjoy legitimate rights. Only the city of restricted purchases provides a level playing field for independent brands, and their dream of regaining market positions with new energy technologies is possible.
In the face of the tide of car purchase restrictions, whether their own brands are fleeing or fighting depends on their resilience and the virtue of the city.

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