Ammonia market will usher in a small upsurge

Fertilizer enters the export window period this year, the domestic urea export is unfavorable, and the domestic market price is in the downward channel; the diammonium export “has not applauded”, and the operating rate of one ammonium is low, and sales are difficult. Many factors lead to the price of synthetic ammonia is also difficult to improve. In spite of this, with the approach of the domestic autumn fertilizer market, it is expected that after the recovery of the compound fertilizer plant production, it will drive the market of synthetic ammonia to usher in a small climax.

According to statistics, in the first half of this year, China’s total output of synthetic ammonia was 27.11 million tons, which was a year-on-year increase of 6.02% compared to 25.57 million tons in the same period last year. The increase in production was mainly due to the smooth production of new production capacity and the buoyant domestic urea market in the first half of the year. In the first half of this year, the domestic new synthetic ammonia production capacity totaled 1.28 million tons, an increase of 1.95% over the original total production capacity of 65.5 million tons. The more important reason is that domestic urea had its highest annual price in May, and the urea utilization rate increased, and even some small enterprises that had stopped production for a long time also resumed production. Synthetic ammonia is the upstream product of urea, and its price is extremely sensitive to changes in the supply and demand of urea, and this year's increase in the supply of synthetic ammonia has also caused the lack of vitality in the market for synthetic ammonia.

The recent domestic ammonia market is in a rebound period after the price decline. At present, the domestic industrial price of ammonia is 2800-3300 yuan (t price, the same below). Due to unsatisfactory market sales, some manufacturers introduced preferential policies. The autumn fertilizer market is approaching. Although the operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant has not returned to normal level, dealers in the local market have started to take delivery. The domestic urea market showed signs of stabilizing, but it still needs to be tested in the downstream market; there is no pressure on sales of diammonium under the support of 1.5 million tons of export orders; it is difficult for ammonium to take the goods and the operating rate is low. The market is expected to stabilize prices in autumn. . On the export side, even if the transaction price is unsatisfactory, urea may be the next step in the process of diammonium, even if it is “appealing”, but the problem of oversupply will be solved first and foremost. In summary, the price of synthetic ammonia should further increase.

Contrary to the domestic market which is "going ahead," the international synthetic ammonia market has been showing an inexhaustible upward momentum since February this year. In the recent Yuri, Baltic synthetic ammonia rises offshore to 600 to 615 U.S. dollars, and in the Middle East to 609 to 663 U.S. dollars.

The demand from the buyer is strong, making the international synthetic ammonia market always show a lack of supply. Although the Russian petrochemical giant Sibur Fertilizer Company's plant in Kemerovo will resume production in August, in September, Yara’s ammonia plant in Pilbara, Australia, and some ammonia plants in the Yuzhny region have planned to stop for two inspections. month. In addition, due to natural gas issues in the Caribbean, ammonia production has declined. At the same time, due to the high output of acrylonitrile and caprolactam, the demand for synthetic ammonia from East Asia is always at a high level. In the United States, the production of diammonium and other industrial uses have made the demand for synthetic ammonia stable. According to current trade statistics, the price of synthetic ammonia that arrived in Australia in the second half of August has reached 750 US dollars. In the fourth quarter, the price of synthetic ammonia in the United States is expected to exceed the threshold of 800 US dollars.

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