The only way to upgrade and transform machine tools

Compared with the growth rate of about 30% that has been maintained in 2011, the growth rate of 11.1% is indeed “a significant decline”. The Association’s previously announced growth rate of total industrial output value in the first half of this year was only 11.6%.

In the month of October, China's machine tool industry accumulated a total industrial output value of 576.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, and the growth rate was significantly lower. This was the author's 7th executive director meeting of the 6th China Machine Tool & Tooling Industry Association held on December 6th. The news received, Wang Liming, Executive Vice President and Secretary-General of China Machine Tool Industry Association, emphasized in the report of the conference: “The industry data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the growth rate of production and sales in the industry has dropped significantly, and the profit has been negatively increased. The gross industrial output value has seen a double-digit negative growth since the beginning of this year. The number of orders in hand and new orders have fallen sharply, and inventory has increased significantly."

The data shows a grim situation

Compared with the growth rate of about 30% that has been maintained in 2011, the growth rate of 11.1% is indeed “a significant decline”. The Association’s previously announced growth rate of total industrial output value in the first half of this year was only 11.6%.

Unoptimistic data is also reflected in total profits. According to Wang Liming, in the month of July, the industry realized a profit of 28.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, and the profit margin of product sales was 5.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points. Among them, the profits of the gold-cutting machine tool industry were even more severe, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.0%. The profit margin of product sales revenue was only 3.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points. According to statistics, the gross industrial output value of the gold-cutting machine tool industry in October was 115.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, and the output was down 16.8% year-on-year.

Compared with the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics on the 4785 enterprises above designated size, the statistical data of 217 key contact enterprises of the China Machine Tool Industry Association show a more severe situation and more prominent problems. These enterprises completed a total industrial output value of 79.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%, of which the output value and output of the gold-cutting machine tool decreased by 19.1% and 29.7% year-on-year, respectively, and the gross output value of the two most serious rolling functional components and numerical control systems declined. 35.0% and 35.8%. The 217 key affiliates reduced their new orders and in-hand orders by 34.0% and 24.7% respectively in the same period of the previous year. Wang Liming emphasized that in the past ten months, the economic operation of China's machine tool industry was grim, and the industry was not optimistic for the whole year; the current market changed rapidly, the market demand for middle and low-end products generally shrank, and the demand for products and services from users increased rapidly. Will become the normal market for the future.

At the same time, China’s imports of machine tool products remained at a high level in the month of October, up 2.1% year-on-year, including imports of gold-cutting machine TOOLS totaling US$9.36 billion, which was still a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and the highest import volume of processing centers, totaling 42,000 units, worth 4.74 billion yuan. Yuan; while the export growth rate has gradually declined, the highest export value is still cutting tools.

Wang Liming predicts in the report that it is expected that the growth rate of the growth rate of the gross industrial output value of the machine tool industry in the fourth quarter will stabilize, but the growth rate of the metal processing machine tool industry may continue to decline for a long time. He further pointed out: “According to the National Bureau of Nationalities According to statistical standards, the whole industry will show a growth rate of more than 10% throughout the year, among which the metal processing machine tool industry will experience slight positive growth, and according to the association’s key contact enterprise data, the growth rate of the metallurgical machine tool output value of the key contact enterprise should be Within 20%.”

Ten years of rapid growth or the end of this period

Chen Huiren, deputy secretary-general of the China Machine Tool & Tooling Industry Association, also stated in the report entitled “Implementation of Strategic Transformation, Transformation and Upgrading, and Promotion of Sustainable Development of the Industry” on the same day: “The major economic indicators of China’s machine tool industry have been reduced, and new orders have been significantly reduced. The level of production and sales has dropped significantly, capital spending has risen sharply, manufacturing resources have been largely idle, and the contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent as the main feature of the current economic operation of the industry.” He believes that the inherent contradiction in the production capacity structure imbalance is even more pronounced. The qualitative competition is further aggravated, and China's machine tool industry is experiencing a relatively difficult transition period after experiencing high-speed growth for more than a decade.

Chen Huiren emphasized that: “Under the current situation, we must abandon the expectation of the government’s further launch of a powerful stimulus plan and give up the demand for a strong rebound in the low-end and mid-range markets because these are unrealistic and the industry needs a new one. The ideological emancipation and conceptual change of the revolution should consciously get rid of the path dependence on the mode of large-scale development and completely abandon the blind pursuit of rapid growth."

Indeed, the overall decline in major economic indicators and the overall downturn in the industry have also forced industry players to believe that the high-speed growth that has lasted for more than a decade will probably end completely this year.

Moreover, the macroeconomic environment in the short term is not optimistic. Yu Bin, Minister of Macroeconomic Research of the Development Research Center of the State Council pointed out in his report “China's Economic Outlook and Outlook 2013”: “From the perspective of the annual trend, the third quarter should be short-term. At the bottom, the fourth quarter is expected to rebound slightly, and the annual economic growth is expected to be slightly higher than 7.5%, which is due to the repeated deterioration of the debt crisis in Europe, the global economy continues to be sluggish, and the country actively controls the real estate market, resolves investment and financing platform risks and promotes structural adjustment. The speed of growth achieved in the background."

Yu Bin believes that in 2013, the world economy is still in an adjustment period after the financial crisis. Problems such as structural reforms and lack of demand growth are difficult to fundamentally change. The impact of the financial crisis shows a long-term trend, and developed economies may fall into a situation similar to Japan’s loss. "decade" situation. At the same time, developed countries implement the strategy of remanufacturing, the third industrial revolution represented by the Internet and new energy is emerging, and new trends in global industrial restructuring have emerged. He predicted that China's consumption and export growth in 2013 will remain roughly the same as in 2012, but investment growth will face downward pressure. First, the rebound in real estate investment will be insufficient. Second, sluggish exports, overcapacity, and low profits will affect the growth of manufacturing investment. .

Wang Weiming, deputy director of the Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out in particular when reporting to the General Assembly: “After farewell to ultra-high growth in the past decade, the average annual economic growth rate in China will be in single digits. China's equipment manufacturing industry must lose its illusion of long-term high-speed economic development, and gradually adapt to the market demand under the stable economic growth environment. Enterprises must rely on the increase of the market to increase production and development to become bigger and stronger. To rely on strength to squeeze market share, the next five years will be a critical period for the transformation and upgrading of China's equipment industry."

"Transition and upgrading" is the only magic weapon

Wu Bolin, executive vice chairman of the China Machine Tool & Tooling Industry Association, pointed out: “The current changes in the industry situation are due to changes in market demand and the decline in the total volume and structural upgrading, while the industry’s own high-end products are not competitive and the middle and low-end production capacity is excess. The situation has not adapted to changes in the market. This is a prominent contradiction in the current development of the industry. To resolve this contradiction, there is only one way to achieve transformation and upgrading, to increase the competitiveness of high-end products in the industry as soon as possible, and to adapt to national economic development and market changes. the trend of."

From the perspective of the transformation and upgrading of the entire equipment industry, it also puts forward new and higher requirements for high-end equipment, especially the machine tool industry. The current market demand, industrial base and policy environment are conducive to the upgrading of the machine tool industry. Wang Weiming emphasized that in recent years, the market share of domestic CNC machine tools has been around 60%, and about 40% still rely on imports. Last year, the import of metal processing machines reached 13.2 billion U.S. dollars. This is also the most favorable condition for us to develop medium- and high-grade machine tools, and it is also realized. The most solid foundation for industrial upgrading; From the perspective of policy environment, on the one hand, “04 Special Project” will be implemented until 2020, can focus on some funds to focus on solving some key problems that need urgent solution, and on the other hand, it is a high-end equipment for strategic emerging industries. One of the five key directions in the manufacturing industry is smart manufacturing. Numerical control machine tools are one of the key points. The mainframes, numerical control systems, and functional components of CNC machine tools are all listed as key support directions.

In the report, Chen Huiren elaborated on the profound understanding of transformation and upgrading. He believes that the current period should be the acceleration period for the transformation and upgrading of the machine tool industry, and proposed that the core goal of transformation and upgrading is competitiveness. “We are currently only at the level we can do. There is still a considerable gap between doing a good job and making it competitive. This is because there is not much market competitiveness that we can do for mid- to high-end product varieties, and even a considerable part of the technological innovation results remain in the sample for a long time. The stages of exhibits, exhibits and experimental products have not been verified by the market, let alone market competitiveness.

Chen Huiren further pointed out that the external performance of our strong competitors in developed countries is the product's market competitiveness, but the internal nature of the gap is the overall quality of the company. Therefore, to achieve a comprehensive transformation and upgrade must focus on the overall improvement of the overall quality of enterprises, not only focus on the hardware but also focus on software, not only technical progress but also management upgrade, not only to focus on things more to focus on people, not only to focus on Institutional development, in particular, should focus on the field of culture.

Although significant changes in the market demand environment have brought difficulties to the industry, Chen Huiren believes: “From the perspective of long-term development of the machine tool industry, this is the pain that the industry must undergo in transition and the price that the industry has to pay. Talking about the changes in the market environment is not entirely a bad thing. It provides an opportunity and an entry point for the transformation and upgrading of the industry. The formed force mechanism provides a strong impetus for the transformation and upgrading of the industry.