Fuel Weekly: Deteriorating Oil Market Running Under Technological Influence
The crude oil and fuel oil markets experienced a quiet week, the fundamentals lacked new themes, and oil prices were more often driven by technological factors. Although public opinion generally regards the adjustment of the exchange rate of the RMB as a positive for the oil market, China’s oil import growth in the first half of the year was only 3.9%, which was far lower than the forecast of the research institutions. At present, the refining industry has a large area of ​​losses, and if the phenomenon of deep inversion of domestic refined oil products does not change, it will be difficult for demand to improve in the second half of the year. Singapore's fuel oil prices have rebounded weakly, but the technology is still facing a broken crisis. This is mainly because Chinese importers have turned to South Korea, the Middle East, etc. This year, fuel oil from Singapore has almost halved. The domestic fuel oil price is still the weakest, and the upside down phenomenon still shows no signs of improvement. The spot price is barely 2900 yuan, and the futures price is 50 yuan or more.
The current spot sales are mainly imported by importers at a high price in the previous period, and the cost is far higher than the current sales price, so the importers seem to have little interest in selling the spot at the current price. The enthusiasm of consumers to buy goods is even lower. The price of 2900 is not likely to be profitable. This year's 50% price increase, even for power plants that enjoy subsidies from the government, will not be able to absorb the pressure of rising costs. After summer, domestic demand will shrink significantly, and the 2900 first-line price may become the high price range in the second half of the year.
The only variable is crude oil. If there is a new supply disruption, crude oil prices will inevitably rise because the balance of supply and demand is still fragile. If new disruptions do not occur, oil prices may be adjusted for medium-level adjustments. From a technical analysis perspective, this possibility is on the rise. At the weekly level, RSI and MACD, New York crude oil prices have shown a clear top divergence, which is very similar to the top of 2000.
On July 23, China once again increased the ex-factory price of gasoline and diesel. Although the price adjustment helps to improve the inversion of refined oil and crude oil prices, it is also a test of domestic capacity. Therefore, the stalemate in the fuel oil market is more like the energy of savings, and the opportunity lies in the price of crude oil in the coming weeks.
The current spot sales are mainly imported by importers at a high price in the previous period, and the cost is far higher than the current sales price, so the importers seem to have little interest in selling the spot at the current price. The enthusiasm of consumers to buy goods is even lower. The price of 2900 is not likely to be profitable. This year's 50% price increase, even for power plants that enjoy subsidies from the government, will not be able to absorb the pressure of rising costs. After summer, domestic demand will shrink significantly, and the 2900 first-line price may become the high price range in the second half of the year.
The only variable is crude oil. If there is a new supply disruption, crude oil prices will inevitably rise because the balance of supply and demand is still fragile. If new disruptions do not occur, oil prices may be adjusted for medium-level adjustments. From a technical analysis perspective, this possibility is on the rise. At the weekly level, RSI and MACD, New York crude oil prices have shown a clear top divergence, which is very similar to the top of 2000.
On July 23, China once again increased the ex-factory price of gasoline and diesel. Although the price adjustment helps to improve the inversion of refined oil and crude oil prices, it is also a test of domestic capacity. Therefore, the stalemate in the fuel oil market is more like the energy of savings, and the opportunity lies in the price of crude oil in the coming weeks.
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