Emerging Markets Create a New Pattern of Oil and Gas Industry
The year 2009 was a year when the global financial crisis affected the overall deepening of the real economy. In the year when the global energy industry actively responded to the impact of the crisis and achieved varying degrees of progress, Chinese companies have performed particularly well and have become global highlights and hot spots. In the past year, the global oil and gas and oil refining industries have witnessed a new market pattern.
Asia Pacific Becomes the Largest Oil Consumption Area Global oil demand has been growing for two consecutive years. The world’s oil demand center has continued to move eastward, and the Asia Pacific region has secured the position of the world’s largest oil consumer zone. At the same time, there has been an increase in proven reserves of oil and natural gas worldwide, but production has declined to varying degrees. The upstream oil exploration and development investment dropped for the first time after a continuous increase of 10 years. Some large-scale projects were postponed or put on hold; natural gas consumption fell for the first time in nearly 10 years, and the overall supply of LNG from tighter to excess.
In 2009, the world's refining capacity increased by 81 million tons/year within a year, exceeding the sum of the previous three years, of which, Asia Pacific’s new capacity was nearly 54.5 million tons/year, accounting for 2/3 of the global new capacity in the same year. . Affected by the large refining capacity and weak demand, global refinery plant utilization fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2009, and fell into a historical trough. At the same time, refining margins continued to decline in major regions of the world. Refiners in developed countries generally suffered losses or decreased profits. Some refineries Plants or installations were forced to shut down, refiners speeded up adjustments and restructurings, and even sold refinery assets or transferred gas stations.
At the same time, the oil refining industries in emerging countries such as China and India have overcome the impact of the crisis and become the highlights and hot spots in the world's refining industry. In addition, oil-producing countries in the Middle East and Africa are actively building new refineries or integrated petrochemical projects relying on their resource advantages, and have made progress.
The financial crisis has had a major impact on large multinational oil companies in Europe and America, resulting in poor production operations, declining revenues and earnings, and increasing financial pressure. In the face of economic recession, major companies in the US and Europe still adhere to their long-term development strategies, continue to be optimistic about the future trend of oil and gas fundamentals, maintain upstream investment, and lean toward large growth oil and gas investment projects, and vigorously develop integrated LNG businesses. On the other hand, they adjusted the downstream investment structure, paid attention to the upgrade of the refinery, vigorously developed clean fuels and high value-added products, increased the scale and adaptability of the equipment, cut the oil retail business in the low-profit market, and consolidated the leading position in technology. , Adhere to integrated management, and selectively develop alternative energy and new energy sources.
China's M&A performance is eye-catching In 2009, under the current situation of the global environment of the global M&A market, the oil and gas acquisition activities of oil companies in countries with rising strength and international status in recent years have become very active and have become major participants in the M&A market. Among them, the performance of Chinese companies was the most impressive.
In 2009, Chinese companies announced a total of 11 upstream acquisitions with a transaction value of over USD 15.9 billion. This is the year that Chinese companies have acquired the most overseas oil and gas mergers in recent years. These include Sinopec’s successful acquisition of Addax Petroleum, CNOOC and Sinopec’s acquisition of part of Angola’s three blocks, CNPC’s participation in the acquisition of the Manghesh set oil company in Kazakhstan, and CNPC’s successful acquisition of shares in Singapore Oil Company and Japan’s Osaka refinery. In addition to several major state-owned oil companies, China’s sovereign wealth funds and private companies have also been involved in oil and gas mergers and acquisitions for the first time.
In addition, at the end of 2009, the world's oil giant Exxon Mobil Corporation spent US$41 billion to acquire the unconventional gas giant XTO Energy, becoming the largest M&A case in the global oil and gas industry since 2000, and the largest energy industry since the financial crisis. Reorganization and integration have far-reaching significance.
Resource countries adopt new cooperation models After the financial crisis, the world's major resource countries continued their foreign cooperation policies formed during the period of high oil prices, strengthened state control over resources, and increased government revenue through various means. However, specific foreign oil and gas cooperation models have New adjustments.
The first was the launch of a practical and mutually beneficial cooperation between "lending for oil". Kazakhstan, Russia, Brazil, Venezuela and other countries successively signed a "loan for oil" cooperation agreement with China. This model can not only ease the temporary difficulties of resource shortages for some resource countries, but also provide the lenders with a longer-term and stable supply of resources. The second is the use of service contracts in Iraq’s two rounds of external tendering as a sign that this approach may become the main method adopted by resource-rich countries in foreign cooperation in the future. The service contract facilitates resource countries to develop and utilize their own resources as quickly and efficiently as possible. It also prevents international investors from gaining control over resources and can maximize the protection of domestic resources, rights, and interests. It has become the fastest growing method of international oil and gas cooperation in recent years.
2010 is the Year of Change and Adjustment As the world economy gradually recovers, it is expected that world oil demand will turn positive in 2010, with an increase of 1 million barrels per day, reaching 86 million barrels per day. The increase in world oil demand mainly comes from China, India and the Middle East in the Asia Pacific region. As non-OPEC oil supply in Brazil and Central Asia is expected to increase in 2010, and OPEC may maintain or appropriately increase the current production level, global oil supply and demand will be more relaxed, and will be slightly larger than demand, global oil stocks The level and remaining capacity of OPEC crude oil will remain at a relatively high level.
The fluctuations in the value of the US dollar in 2010 and the speculative funds speculation will have a greater impact on the fluctuation of international oil prices. Expectations of economic recovery and inflation will become the main theme of high speculative oil prices. From the analysis of the trend of the world economy in 2010, the fundamentals of oil supply and demand, and other non-fundamental aspects, it is expected that the international oil price operating range in 2010 will be roughly in the range of 65 to 100 US dollars/barrel, and the average price is estimated to be 75 to 85 US dollars/barrel in the second half of the year. The international oil price will generally be higher than the first half.
In 2010, the world's oil refining capacity will continue to grow rapidly under the influence of the “inertia†built in previous years. As the global economy gradually recovers, demand for oil products will pick up, so the processing volume of crude oil in refineries around the world will slowly pick up, and the growth rate of crude oil processing in developed countries will lag behind that of emerging economies. The refinery construction projects in Asia Pacific, the Middle East and other regions will continue to advance and put into operation one after another. As a result, the global capacity surplus and the low operating rate cannot be fundamentally changed.
In general, 2010 will be the year in which the world's oil and petrochemical industry overcomes difficulties and continues to develop, transform, and adjust. After the Copenhagen conference, low-carbon economy, energy saving and emission reduction will have a huge and far-reaching impact on the world petroleum and petrochemical industry.
Asia Pacific Becomes the Largest Oil Consumption Area Global oil demand has been growing for two consecutive years. The world’s oil demand center has continued to move eastward, and the Asia Pacific region has secured the position of the world’s largest oil consumer zone. At the same time, there has been an increase in proven reserves of oil and natural gas worldwide, but production has declined to varying degrees. The upstream oil exploration and development investment dropped for the first time after a continuous increase of 10 years. Some large-scale projects were postponed or put on hold; natural gas consumption fell for the first time in nearly 10 years, and the overall supply of LNG from tighter to excess.
In 2009, the world's refining capacity increased by 81 million tons/year within a year, exceeding the sum of the previous three years, of which, Asia Pacific’s new capacity was nearly 54.5 million tons/year, accounting for 2/3 of the global new capacity in the same year. . Affected by the large refining capacity and weak demand, global refinery plant utilization fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2009, and fell into a historical trough. At the same time, refining margins continued to decline in major regions of the world. Refiners in developed countries generally suffered losses or decreased profits. Some refineries Plants or installations were forced to shut down, refiners speeded up adjustments and restructurings, and even sold refinery assets or transferred gas stations.
At the same time, the oil refining industries in emerging countries such as China and India have overcome the impact of the crisis and become the highlights and hot spots in the world's refining industry. In addition, oil-producing countries in the Middle East and Africa are actively building new refineries or integrated petrochemical projects relying on their resource advantages, and have made progress.
The financial crisis has had a major impact on large multinational oil companies in Europe and America, resulting in poor production operations, declining revenues and earnings, and increasing financial pressure. In the face of economic recession, major companies in the US and Europe still adhere to their long-term development strategies, continue to be optimistic about the future trend of oil and gas fundamentals, maintain upstream investment, and lean toward large growth oil and gas investment projects, and vigorously develop integrated LNG businesses. On the other hand, they adjusted the downstream investment structure, paid attention to the upgrade of the refinery, vigorously developed clean fuels and high value-added products, increased the scale and adaptability of the equipment, cut the oil retail business in the low-profit market, and consolidated the leading position in technology. , Adhere to integrated management, and selectively develop alternative energy and new energy sources.
China's M&A performance is eye-catching In 2009, under the current situation of the global environment of the global M&A market, the oil and gas acquisition activities of oil companies in countries with rising strength and international status in recent years have become very active and have become major participants in the M&A market. Among them, the performance of Chinese companies was the most impressive.
In 2009, Chinese companies announced a total of 11 upstream acquisitions with a transaction value of over USD 15.9 billion. This is the year that Chinese companies have acquired the most overseas oil and gas mergers in recent years. These include Sinopec’s successful acquisition of Addax Petroleum, CNOOC and Sinopec’s acquisition of part of Angola’s three blocks, CNPC’s participation in the acquisition of the Manghesh set oil company in Kazakhstan, and CNPC’s successful acquisition of shares in Singapore Oil Company and Japan’s Osaka refinery. In addition to several major state-owned oil companies, China’s sovereign wealth funds and private companies have also been involved in oil and gas mergers and acquisitions for the first time.
In addition, at the end of 2009, the world's oil giant Exxon Mobil Corporation spent US$41 billion to acquire the unconventional gas giant XTO Energy, becoming the largest M&A case in the global oil and gas industry since 2000, and the largest energy industry since the financial crisis. Reorganization and integration have far-reaching significance.
Resource countries adopt new cooperation models After the financial crisis, the world's major resource countries continued their foreign cooperation policies formed during the period of high oil prices, strengthened state control over resources, and increased government revenue through various means. However, specific foreign oil and gas cooperation models have New adjustments.
The first was the launch of a practical and mutually beneficial cooperation between "lending for oil". Kazakhstan, Russia, Brazil, Venezuela and other countries successively signed a "loan for oil" cooperation agreement with China. This model can not only ease the temporary difficulties of resource shortages for some resource countries, but also provide the lenders with a longer-term and stable supply of resources. The second is the use of service contracts in Iraq’s two rounds of external tendering as a sign that this approach may become the main method adopted by resource-rich countries in foreign cooperation in the future. The service contract facilitates resource countries to develop and utilize their own resources as quickly and efficiently as possible. It also prevents international investors from gaining control over resources and can maximize the protection of domestic resources, rights, and interests. It has become the fastest growing method of international oil and gas cooperation in recent years.
2010 is the Year of Change and Adjustment As the world economy gradually recovers, it is expected that world oil demand will turn positive in 2010, with an increase of 1 million barrels per day, reaching 86 million barrels per day. The increase in world oil demand mainly comes from China, India and the Middle East in the Asia Pacific region. As non-OPEC oil supply in Brazil and Central Asia is expected to increase in 2010, and OPEC may maintain or appropriately increase the current production level, global oil supply and demand will be more relaxed, and will be slightly larger than demand, global oil stocks The level and remaining capacity of OPEC crude oil will remain at a relatively high level.
The fluctuations in the value of the US dollar in 2010 and the speculative funds speculation will have a greater impact on the fluctuation of international oil prices. Expectations of economic recovery and inflation will become the main theme of high speculative oil prices. From the analysis of the trend of the world economy in 2010, the fundamentals of oil supply and demand, and other non-fundamental aspects, it is expected that the international oil price operating range in 2010 will be roughly in the range of 65 to 100 US dollars/barrel, and the average price is estimated to be 75 to 85 US dollars/barrel in the second half of the year. The international oil price will generally be higher than the first half.
In 2010, the world's oil refining capacity will continue to grow rapidly under the influence of the “inertia†built in previous years. As the global economy gradually recovers, demand for oil products will pick up, so the processing volume of crude oil in refineries around the world will slowly pick up, and the growth rate of crude oil processing in developed countries will lag behind that of emerging economies. The refinery construction projects in Asia Pacific, the Middle East and other regions will continue to advance and put into operation one after another. As a result, the global capacity surplus and the low operating rate cannot be fundamentally changed.
In general, 2010 will be the year in which the world's oil and petrochemical industry overcomes difficulties and continues to develop, transform, and adjust. After the Copenhagen conference, low-carbon economy, energy saving and emission reduction will have a huge and far-reaching impact on the world petroleum and petrochemical industry.
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