China Auto Market Watch: A good momentum for the auto market
The dealers wait for the depot to issue a new business policy.
For ordinary consumers, the recent introduction of a series of car purchase policies in Guangzhou has disrupted normal people's consumption outlook.
For Guangzhou City's distributors, two consecutive days and nights of more than 40 hours of fighting in the front line of sales, beyond the December 2010 Christmas Eve sales in Beijing.
For automakers, the long-term weakness of the capital market and the collective dive of auto stocks have made the previous round of new plant foundations and capacity upgrades less festive. Regardless of whether the country's long-term industrial orientation has been shifted to this point, it is now considered that North, Shanghai, and Guangdong have all introduced a series of policies. If the demonstration effect affects other cities, then the capacity of new factories that will be put into production in this and next two years should be Where to go.
"It's all about their own annoyances." A Guangzhou auto consumer who is planning to learn to catch the car to catch up with the first Yaohao sadly sighs, "The road ahead is to continue to block, the car is still not allowed to buy!" But it is worthy of recognition Afterwards, after-sales service must be more intimate, and in the eyes of professionals, “the quantity that can be sold is reduced. After that, the main business of most dealership stores will become a car repair, and it will definitely change the way to retain existing Customers, insurance, finance, and sales will do better."
The change of distributor pattern into an inevitable "Junction" issued on June 30 indicated that within the one-year period during which the control of the total amount of medium and small passenger cars is being tested, the incremental quota of medium and small passenger cars in Guangzhou will be 120,000. Last year, the number of brand-name cars made in and imported from Guangzhou City was about 220,000. If considering the transaction volume of second-hand cars at the same time, the total number of cards sold exceeds 300,000. From the current point of view, the on-card index is equivalent to 40% of last year.
At the same time, referring to the situation that occurred after Beijing City's restriction of purchase, “some consumers have failed to buy a car because of various reasons, but they have further reduced the actual purchase rate,†said the person in charge of the relevant department in Beijing.
In summary, the apparent shrinkage of sales in Guangzhou's regional auto market has become an objective fact. For nearly 500 dealers in Guangzhou, they face different conditions.
First of all, due to the significant increase in the threshold for car purchases, the consumption pattern in the auto market will change significantly, and the survival of self-owned brand car dealers and used car dealers will be challenged first. Failures and mergers are the inevitable fate of some small distributors. This has been proven in the Beijing purchase policy. According to statistics, after the implementation of the purchase restriction policy, the sales volume of self-owned brands in the Beijing region has dropped significantly. From the first half of 2011, it has dropped from 19.8% during the peak period to 10%. BYD, Chery, Great Wall and other self-owned brand companies have reduced Its number of dealers in Beijing.
At the same time, the strength of the group backed by the dealership shows a great effect. “All the stores in our group can still achieve the purpose of building a store, but the new store that has just opened will have a hard time.†Nanling Group Marketing Director Zhang Yalin’s remarks have been confirmed by many dealers. For dealers who have been in the market for many years, the original large number of maintenance and repair customers are the supporting points for maintaining sustainable development. However, the new store’s retention customers need to slowly accumulate, and the new car sales situation is difficult to open due to the policy.
However, in spite of this, in the long run, sales of single stores affected by policies will inevitably decline. Taking the Audi dealership as an example, dealers in the Beijing region, which once ranked first and had an annual sales volume of nearly 4,000 units, withdrew from the top three after the purchase restriction, and replaced them with two distributors in the Chengdu area and one dealer in the Guangzhou area. In January of this year, Audi opened its largest and most versatile used car showroom in Chengdu. In fact, after the purchase restriction, the manufacturer's plan for the region will inevitably appear to be adjusted accordingly.
Small dealers face mergers
When talking about the development of regional dealers in Guangzhou, some professionals expect that “conservative estimates that only about one-third of dealers will survive in the future.†And this part of the dealers will focus on luxury brands, luxury brands and “Some dealers that have had relatively high profits after sales, such as Toyota Motors, etc.â€
Although in the long run, closing down and being merged is the inevitable fate of some small distributors. However, judging from the current market conditions, it "has not reached the critical moment of shuffling." The reason is that, for car dealers, the sales over the past few days are typical "increase and increase profits." According to interviews with reporters from the Southern Capital, FAW Toyota and Dongfeng Ri branded products all had more than 300 vehicles sold in 4S shops with convenient transportation. Even the sales of Lexus and imported Volkswagen 4S stores were broken. In general, the sales volume in these days is roughly equivalent to the one-month sales of car dealers. The sales volume of Guangzhou City is between 15,000 and 25,000 vehicles.
After hearing the news that Guangzhou Automobile will issue a new policy in the evening of June 30th, it intends to immediately move customers to the dealers, despite the “Circular on the Management of the Total and Regulatory Management of Small and Medium Buses in Guangzhou City†(hereinafter referred to as “Noticeâ€). It is stated that the sales contract signed before 0:00 on July 1 or the unified invoice for vehicle sales, through the notarization of the authenticity of the above-mentioned materials, can directly handle the registration of vehicles and transfer registration. The industrial and commercial bureaus of various districts in Guangzhou also began to conduct law enforcement inspections for major car dealers on Mondays. However, due to dealers adopting “flexible†methods of operation, they used the June purchase invoices and written the date of the car purchase contract as June 30. The car sales war did not come until the end of July 4 when the Industrial and Commercial Bureau sealed up most of the vehicle's contracts and invoices.
Since most of the new cars are sold at their original prices, some models even increase their sales, so car dealers have a considerable profit from car sales in the past few days. A salesman told the Southern Reporter that on the evening of June 30th he sold a car with an official guide price of about 200,000 yuan. The original discount for this car was 40,000 yuan. That night, in addition to asking the customer to buy quality goods, he also directly increased the price. Finally, the car's profits (including factory rebates) reached 70,000 yuan. Some car dealers told Nandu reporters that it is now an era of “discipline†and that dealers have had no time to calculate operating income, but because the profits of car sales in June are thin or even at a loss, the profits of car sales on these days may be comparable to the original one. Quarterly.
Mastering the "through-train" service is of utmost importance. "We are now waiting for more specific policy information. If from the point of view of operations, if the sales volume can be maintained at around 40% of the dealers, there is still a chance to stay with the government. The initial upside down gradually shifted to the stage of after-sales support sales,†a dealer from GAC Toyota told reporters.
Judging from the situation after the Beijing purchase restriction, the same brand dealers will experience diversion and recombination. Taking the Toyota Department as an example, after the Beijing purchase restriction, the average sales volume of its dealers’ single stores has dropped by about 60%, from the original monthly sales of about 2,000 units to about 600 units. In addition to restricting the opening of new stores, manufacturers have also conducted extensive training for local distributors. “We believe that dealers who have mastered one-stop service skills can survive better.†Senior management of the Toyota Department talks about purchase restrictions. Experience points out that for a limited market, the first is to increase brand awareness and reputation, attracting the number of stores; second is to get through the overall industry chain from the acquisition of used cars to transfer of the license, "help customers complete the old car to the new car The whole process of licensing."
In fact, while the first-hand car dealers are pursuing the development of “one-stop†services, used car dealers are facing more severe market tests. On Tuesday, the second-hand car dealership of Guangzhou City Trinidad Post published a micro-blog to the relevant department's micro-blog, which mentioned that "in the next four months, the decline in profit of second-hand car shops in Guangzhou will be around 80%."
With reference to Beijing's transaction data during the same period, Beijing used 401,000 vehicles in 2011, a decrease of 22.2% year-on-year, but the rate of decline was 34% lower than that of new cars. At the same time, the percentage of second-hand cars sold in Beijing was gradually approaching 4.5:5.5. Car brokerage companies and new car dealers are constantly expanding their relocation channels. Each brand automobile manufacturer has also introduced a subsidy policy for replacement of used cars in order to increase sales of new cars, opened up sales channels for used cars, and adopted high subsidies. On the whole, replacing old transactions with new ones has become a major feature of the used car trade in Beijing in 2011. It has changed from a new year old to a new one. After the record car was released on April 1 last year, the used car market quickly became active. After the second half of last year, the used car trade in this market began to pick up. Last year, the proportion of used cars moved out of Beijing significantly increased, accounting for about 35% of the total volume.
The Pearl River Delta Car Dealer Opportunities and Challenges Coexist
If we say that Guangzhou City's dealerships are thinking about how to solve the backlog of inventory and business transformation, then for the dealers and consumers in the surrounding areas of Guangzhou, the mentality is even more “tangledâ€.
“From now on, the car is worthless, and the license plate is worth it.†On the afternoon of July 1, BYD salesman Ahwai whispered his order signed by him. After these busy days, he is ready to find work opportunities in Foshan, Zhongshan and other places.
Not only first-line car sales personnel, Guangzhou's dealers are also considering how to expand to find a living space, there is a Zhu Xing independent brand dealers made it clear that in the future Guangzhou certainly can not accommodate so many dealers, their brands are particularly difficult days Everyone must build a store in the field to survive and develop.
“Today the people of the trade associations have also come to the auto companies for investigation. They want to know if the auto dealers will sell vehicles at a low price. Will the auto market in Dongguan be affected.†On Tuesday, Dongguan automakers called Nandu reporters and expressed their opinions. Concerned about the above.
If for the market in the surrounding areas of Guangzhou, the New Deal still has the “good†for industrial transfer and stimulation of short-term consumption, then for the entire Chinese automobile market, Guangzhou’s New Deal is an obvious “badâ€. Xiangcai Securities believes that the New Deal will have a negative effect on the industry in the short term.
Although changes in the Guangzhou market will have little effect on car sales, they will increase market expectations for other cities' policies to emulate. Everbright Securities (601,788, stocks) also released a research report during the same period, said the Guangzhou New Deal fear for other cities to follow and weaken the determination of the central government to launch auto consumption incentives. In addition to Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Nanjing are also plagued by traffic congestion. In the future, we believe other cities with serious traffic jams have the potential to imitate Guangzhou.
After-sales derivative business will develop rapidly
Although "blocking the blockade" is for the people who want to buy a car, want to sell cars, and even investors have added blocks in the short term. But Zhong Shi, a well-known auto analyst in China, thinks, "It has not been so pessimistic for a long time."
First, when the inventory reaches a certain scale, the development of the after-sales market is sufficient to support the operation of the dealership. Judging from the business model of foreign auto stores, in the middle period of development, the car sales business basically does not make money, and the after-sales business makes money. In the later stages of development, the after-sales service is only used to maintain storefront expenses, and the derivative business makes money.
“The derivative business mainly includes multiple compounding businesses such as auto finance, auto insurance, and used cars,†Audi brand managers said. “According to Audi’s current holdings, our derivative business has developed very rapidly.â€
Judging from the prevailing normal operating conditions in the current market, mid-level brands represented by Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Volkswagen, GM, and Hyundai, their dealerships in Beijing City accounted for 10%-20% of single store profits; , Mercedes-Benz, Audi as the representative of high-end brands, its proportion is 40% -50%.
"In the transition, the dealership will pay more attention to retaining existing customers and all customers who come to the store. The main business has shifted from selling cars to repairing cars and providing derivative services. Then they do publicity and marketing. All will change," Zhong said.
“Our group is also researching countermeasures now. The focus of the future will shift to after-sales service. We will save some of the cost of new car promotion and use it to increase the added value of maintenance.†The person in charge of the Hongye Group’s marketing department stated that the Hongyu Group’s maintenance and sales The business originally had a high degree of loyalty. In the future, the company will strengthen its advantage in this area.
And Cai Zhaoyuan, head of marketing at Dacry's Xilong Group, believes that in addition to maintenance, the replacement of used cars in the future is also a business segment that should be vigorously developed by the automakers. This business will not only boost new car sales, but also increase customer loyalty. At present, the auto brands of Guangzhou auto market still have a certain market share, and they are the target of high-quality replacement for mid-range joint venture brands.
Markets focus on dealers rationally responding to market changes out of concerns about the prospects. A reporter of the marketing department of a car dealership group that operates five brands at the same time revealed to reporters from Nandu. “Our group has already laid off its staff. The sales department will surely reduce the number of people in the near future, while the personnel in the insurance and maintenance departments will not be affected. ."
Although the relevant person in charge of GAC Group (601238, stocks) said that the current auto market temporarily "no comment", but also said it would reconsider the regional business policy. In fact, almost all mainstream car dealers, including Shanghai Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen, Shanghai GM, and Beijing Hyundai, have all submitted their market conditions to their headquarters and will make appropriate adjustments to regional policies in the near future.
“The key now is to stabilize the distributor’s military morale and restore confidence.†Dongfeng Nissan’s senior supervisor Wang Fayin told Southern Reporters in an interview. After the announcement of the New Deal, the factory’s top management attached great importance and responded positively, although the current procurement rules were not published. However, the current short-term response plan and long-term response plan are positive. Nandu reporter learned from the brand dealer that the Guangzhou area has submitted a report to the manufacturers and suggested that the assessment of the car dealers' tasks be relaxed in the short term.
Although recent changes in the automobile sales market due to changes in policy, but a number of interviewed car dealers have said that compared with the scene in Beijing in the previous year to buy one night to sell 160,000 vehicles mad, Guangzhou consumers are obviously more rational, each brand Many customers have finally given up buying cars for various reasons. “Most of the recent car purchases were intentional customers who had previously planned to buy a car.†A salesperson from Dongfeng Nissan who told the Southern Reporter told reporters that according to his judgment, there were few people blindly rushed into the 4S shop due to policy stimulus.
Before the introduction of the shake number restriction policy in Beijing the previous year, the specific numbering rules were announced in detail. Consumers can determine how high the threshold for future licensing is. However, the details of the future regulation of Guangzhou have not yet been introduced. It is also unclear how foreign cars will be restricted. Therefore, it becomes more rational when making a car purchase decision. In addition, this year's economic environment at home and abroad has encountered many challenges. Consumers are not as proud as they used to buy cars. The news conference was held on June 30. At that time, the stock market has been hovering in the low post, and many car-buying funds have been deeply embedded in the stock market. These are the reasons that affect the purchasing power in the near future.
Because of this, the numerous stocks in the auto market have not been digested in a short time. FAW-Volkswagen, Shanghai GM Buick, Dongfeng Nissan, FAW Toyota, Shanghai GM Chevrolet, Chery, BYD, Dongfeng Yueda Kia and many other brands have car dealers told Nandu reporters that there are still many stock cars in the warehouse. Since the volume of transactions began to drop in July, how these inventory vehicles will be disposed of is the biggest headache for everyone when they are busy preparing for notarial materials.
Integrating the views of many car dealers, the Southern Metropolis Daily reporters summed up the three methods that we believe are the best for handling inventory: manufacturers give car dealerships a subsidy for cars, manufacturers recycle car cars, and manufacturers allow dealers to cross-regional sales within a certain period of time.
The pace of opening of the new store slowed down. “I can only say that the bosses of the two new stores in Nansha and Fangcun in Guangzhou have a rough destiny! After completing the painstakingly building the store, the license plate has come.†A microblogging user saw news of purchase restrictions. Immediately thought of the possible end of the new store. Nandu reporter learned that a Japanese 4S shop in Nansha was originally scheduled to open this month. According to the middle management of the group, this is the country’s largest 4S store under the brand, and dealer groups have high hopes for this. “Our group has joined the Nansha Yacht Club and recently decided to have a yacht intended for use by owners of Nansha Group’s major brands. The new store is located in Nansha, but there are certainly conveniences near the waterfront. However, because the details of future licensing are not available, they do not know. The auto market will be affected by what kind of impact, so we can only suspend business and wait for a while to decide whether to go or stay."
Relatively speaking, the future of self-owned brand new stores has more uncertainties. A self-owned brand car dealer at the racecourse just upgraded its original direct store to a 4S store in early June and heard the news within 20 days of operation. “As everyone expects, the survival space of independent brands will become very small in the future. Although we have sold dozens of cars in the past few days, we are not happy at all,†said a salesman at the 4S store. Nandu reporter, now that the CEOs are not concerned about the details of the government, they are waiting to see the manufacturer’s business policies. If the manufacturers do not have a special support policy for the Guangzhou area, then it is difficult for them to pay current operating costs such as rent and labor.
But not all dealers have the idea of ​​"I die for you." China's largest Land Rover dealer, Huitong Luhua, entered the Guangzhou market first when it opened a city showroom in the east of the city. Its 4S shop in Pazhou was already building a shop. After receiving information on the total amount of automobiles in Guangzhou, the reporter from Southern Metropolitan Department has been connected with the person in charge of the marketing department of the dealership. He learned that not only will the store plan be carried out as planned, but dealers will also convene customers to hold an aurora test drive on July 6. Experience meeting. "The New Deal has little effect on our high-end brands." The responsible person said calmly. In fact, the "Beijing experience" also proves this point. In Beijing, after the increase in the threshold for car purchases, the car owner’s budget for car purchases has also increased significantly, and luxury brands have ushered in the spring of development.
Second-hand car sales opportunities in different places have increased greatly Since the end of 2010, the new policy of restricting the amount of car ownership in Beijing has been issued, resulting in a sharp decline in the volume of used second-hand cars. In January, the entire city sold only 6,000 cars. At the same time, the transaction price of second-hand cars declined rapidly, and some used car brokerage companies closed down. Two months later, second-hand car trading began to pick up, and sales rose back to 30,000 units in April. Since then, it has risen month by month. By December, the volume of second-hand cars reached 56,000, which has surpassed new car sales since the second half of the year.
In 2011, the number of used car transactions in Beijing was 401,000, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2%, but the rate of decline was lower than that of the new car by 34%. At the same time, the ratio of local sales and relocation of used cars in Beijing was gradually approaching at 4.5:5.5. Used car dealers and new car dealers. Both are continuing to expand their relocation channels, and all brand automobile manufacturers have also introduced subsidized replacement policies for used cars to increase sales of new vehicles, opened up sales channels for used cars and adopted high subsidies. On the whole, replacing old transactions with new ones has become a major feature of the used car trade in Beijing in 2011. It has changed from a new year old to a new one. After the record car was released on April 1 last year, the used car market quickly became active. After the second half of last year, the used car trade in this market began to pick up. Last year, the proportion of used cars moved out of Beijing significantly increased, accounting for about 35% of the total volume.
Given the state of Beijing, large second-hand car dealers in Guangzhou also began to consider opening branches in different locations. A large local car dealer told reporters that due to the limited prospects of operating second-hand cars locally, a substantial part of the original dealers will be rapidly transformed into wholesale transshipment businesses, in particular, second-hand car dealerships in different places, the responsible person told Reporter, the company has already planned to open branches in cities around the Pearl River Delta to prepare for off-site transactions. However, it is the first time to clean up inventory vehicles. According to his estimation, nearly 80% of local used cars will be relocated. As for the used car price in the future, he said that there may be a decline of at least 10%.
Beijing model inspiration still exists as a bottleneck for export Although there is a way out for relocation, the number of brokerage companies in the used car market in Beijing last year dropped significantly, from more than 130 in 2010 to more than 80 by the end of 2011. The remaining major These are large-scale brokerage companies. With the introduction of restrictions on the relocation of cars outside Beijing by Hebei and other places, the difficulty of relocating used cars has also increased. At present, the second-hand car operators in Beijing have begun to expand their relocation channels in Shandong and Liaoning, according to the statistics of the major used car market. At present, the number of second-hand cars that Beijing relocated to Hebei and Shandong provinces accounts for almost half of the total relocations. At the same time, some powerful Beijing used car dealers began to implement branch stores built in Shijiazhuang, Tianjin and other places, forming a second sales area, through the joint venture with the car dealers in neighboring cities, the second-hand car was temporarily transferred to the local, forming a scale operation Later, based on this as a base, the used cars in Beijing were sold to more distant cities and regions.
In August 2011, Beijing implemented a subsidy for replacement of green standard vehicles for more than six years, which stipulates that only foreign models can obtain subsidy funds. This policy has further increased the proportion of Beijing's second-hand car relocation. However, Beijing's high-quality and low-priced used cars have had a significant impact on local new car sales. Last year, the foreign market led by Hebei has begun to set limits on used cars in Beijing, such as Shijiazhuang’s clear restrictions on non-compliance with the country’s three environmental protection standards and its useful life. For more than five years, used cars enter the local market. From January 1 this year, a number of provinces and cities around Beijing, including Liaoning, Jilin, and Shandong, have issued corresponding restrictions. Some cities have even raised the national standard to the fourth. As more and more cities introduced barriers to restrictions, many second-hand car dealers in Beijing could not withdraw their sales points established in the first half of the year.
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