Supply and demand tends to operate at high levels of loose prices - Prospects for China's capital market in 2005
In 2004, the state’s macroeconomic regulation and control achieved results, and overheated development in some industries was effectively suppressed, ensuring the rapid and healthy development of the national economy. It is expected that in 2005 the country will continue to consolidate the achievements of macroeconomic regulation and control, and at the same time, the effects of regulation and control in 2004 will be further manifested. According to analysis, the trend of China's capital goods market will show two major characteristics in 2005. The trend of supply and demand tends to be loose. It is expected that the scale of consumption demand for China's production materials in 2005 will continue to maintain a relatively high level. It is predicted that due to China’s overheating of some industries, and the impact of global interest rate hikes and high oil prices, both domestic and international economic growth will fall back in 2005 compared with 2004. China’s growth rate is about 8%, and global growth rate is 3%. the above. Since China's new round of economic growth cycle is not yet over, the characteristics of heavy chemical industry development are obvious, and the momentum of global economic recovery will not be reversed. Therefore, consumer demand for production materials in 2005 will continue to grow. It is expected that the total sales of China's means of production may reach or exceed 12 trillion yuan in 2005, an increase of more than 10% from 2004. In 2005, the consumption hot spots of China's production materials will still focus on steel, coal, crude oil, cement, and rubber. It is estimated that in 2005, the national steel demand (including exports, the same below) will exceed 330 million tons, non-ferrous metals will exceed 11 million tons, coal will reach or exceed 1.6 billion tons, cement will reach or exceed 1 billion tons, and rubber will reach 4.5 million tons. The growth rate is over 10%; the auto consumption is 5.5 million to 6 million vehicles. Although the growth from 'blowout' type to steady growth, but the growth rate will maintain double-digit level; demand for crude oil will continue to increase, demand The volume will exceed 320 million tons, of which diesel consumption will exceed 100 million tons, and gasoline consumption will exceed 50 million tons. Driven by strong demand, new resources for China's means of production in 2005 will continue to grow at a high level, which can fully guarantee the needs of economic development. First, domestic production will grow steadily. In 2005, the prices of production materials in the domestic market will remain firm, thus stimulating corporate production enthusiasm. From the second half of 2004 to the first half of 2005, a new batch of steel, synthetic materials, nonferrous metals, cement and other new devices will be put into operation in China, and the domestic supply capacity will continue to increase. It is estimated that in 2005 China's steel production capacity will exceed 300 million tons, and then climb a new level; synthetic rubber will have more than 100,000 tons capacity put into production; by the end of 2005, the national synthetic resin production capacity will reach 22 million tons, the domestic market share is close to 60 %; The vehicle output will grow steadily and will exceed 5.5 million vehicles. The second is that imports maintain a relatively large scale. In 2005, China’s industrial production will continue to grow at a double-digit rate, and many raw materials such as ore, crude oil, and timber require large amounts of imports. At the same time, due to technical limitations, some high-tech, high-value-added products will still rely on imports. In 2005, even if the level of imports of China's means of production is not high, it will be large. Among them, crude oil, ore, rubber, steel, timber, copper, aluminum, etc. will still be the main imported varieties, and the import volume will not fall below the 2004 level. Third, inventory will increase. In the second half of 2004, there was an increase in the social inventory of some materials, such as the increase in natural rubber inventory from tens of thousands of tons to more than 200,000 tons. Newly increased inventory can be turned into new year resources. It can thus be seen that despite the constraints of transport bottlenecks and other factors, temporary and partial imbalances in supply and demand may arise, but there will be no overall and persistent supply tension. From the perspective of the whole year and the overall situation, the supply and demand relationship of important materials across the country will tend to be loose, and it can meet the needs of economic development. The high market price operation In 2005, the supply and demand of major materials in the Chinese market tends to be loose, and there is little room for further increase in the prices of production materials. However, due to the strong support of production costs, it is difficult for prices to drop sharply. Operating at relatively high prices will become an important feature of the domestic market for production materials in 2005, and it will also have obvious cost-pushing features. First, the energy prices of electricity and fuel are firm. In 2004, China's electricity supply was tight. It is expected that it will be eased in 2005, but prices will hardly come down. The rising prices of coal, fuel, and natural gas will inevitably stimulate the increase in electricity prices, and logistics costs will increase. Some important raw material production enterprises as large energy consumption and logistics, the increase in production costs will be very obvious, which will play a great role in supporting the overall price of production materials. After adjusting the deposit and loan interest rate by financial institutions, interest and other expenses will increase, which will also increase production and circulation costs. The second is that domestic and foreign raw materials are expensive. In 2005, the output of China's steel, copper and petrochemical products will further increase, and per capita consumption will continue to increase. At the same time, the consumption of major populous countries such as India is also increasing. The economic recovery of the United States, Japan, and the European Union has been accelerating and the demand for industrial products has increased. Affected by this, global companies will compete more fiercely for resources such as minerals and petroleum, and the market will continue to show a tighter price situation. The tightening of global primary product prices and the tight transport of bulk cargoes have on the one hand increased the production costs of many production materials and driven up prices; on the other hand, they have also inhibited the production of capacity and increased supply. China's mineral resources are relatively poor, and 1/3 or even more than half of the demand for primary products such as crude oil, steel (including ores, the same below), copper, rubber, and alumina depends on imports. In recent years, China has imported large quantities of iron sand, steel, petroleum, copper, and aluminum from the international market, many of which have already accounted for 1/4 to 1/3 of the world's total trade volume. As global economic growth continues to increase raw material consumption, the supply of world primary products will be further strained. Since 2004, many domestic companies have felt the pressure of tight supply of raw materials and energy. It is estimated that this situation will not change greatly in 2005. Taking the 2004 international crude oil price as a breakthrough at 50 US dollars per barrel, the era of low raw material prices has already come to an end. Whether it is the Chinese market or the international market, it will face the situation that primary products will be tightly sold. It will be more and more difficult to obtain raw materials in the future, and the shortage of resources will become the biggest bottleneck that hinders China’s economic growth at present and in the future. In this regard, we must have long-term ideological preparations and corresponding measures.
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